{ "ticker": { "uuid": "019f84c1-b7dd-48b0-b019-2675d3673277", "symbol": "300130", "name": "XGD Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.533, "architecture_energy": 47.874, "architecture_maturity": 72.952, "architecture_confidence": 87.784, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.69, "rotation_up": 21.21, "upward_expansion": 6.68, "deceleration": 59.95, "rotation_down": 56.42, "downward_expansion": 80.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.799333, 19.077201, 20.359567, 21.427093 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.82, "trend_reference": 23.086197, "distance_from_trend": -0.141478, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.803265, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130826, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.782762, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.254887, "excess_performance": -0.262287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141478, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079912, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130826, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122505, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080061, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254887, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.907795, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98032599, "relative_activity": 1.957881, "balance": 0.907795, "dry_up": 1.471276, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108206, "annualized_volatility": 0.428807, "from_high_reference": -0.433547, "from_low_reference": 0.2078 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.086197, "fair_value_reference": 22.803265, "structural_low": 16.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.013625, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.002918, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.447937, "worst_return": -0.168399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.072094, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.030753, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.606187, "worst_return": -0.278085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.385264, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.112576, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.715204, "worst_return": -0.226039, 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"activity_lines": [ 18.327333, 19.110232, 20.518357, 21.654826 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.82, "volume": 98032599, "typical_volume": 50070756.45, "trend": 23.086197, "fair_value": 22.803265, "relative_strength": -23.782762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.533052, "energy": 47.873975, "activity_lines": [ 18.799333, 19.077201, 20.359567, 21.427093 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }