{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01a437c9-e1d0-4fd5-b0a9-be3f4f9b124f", "symbol": "ALHRG", "name": "Herige", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 74.05, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.368, "architecture_energy": 40.955, "architecture_maturity": 9.787, "architecture_confidence": 50.113, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.35, "rotation_up": 60.52, "upward_expansion": 53.75, "deceleration": 30.75, "rotation_down": 19.53, "downward_expansion": 14.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.4, 21.163637, 20.591191, 20.585914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.200001, "trend_reference": 20.736667, "distance_from_trend": 0.022344, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.313449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.128055, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.832575, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.031963, "excess_performance": -0.085275, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022344, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009395, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.128055, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094643, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058326, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042563, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031963, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.680838, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4533, "relative_activity": 1.64257, "balance": 0.680838, "dry_up": 0.976646, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040639, "annualized_volatility": 0.289617, "from_high_reference": -0.074236, "from_low_reference": 0.164835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.736667, "fair_value_reference": 24.313449, "structural_low": 18.200001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.033003, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.049502, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.06117, "worst_return": -0.081818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.023041, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.053288, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.013298, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.08464, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.092681, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.009217, "worst_return": -0.101136, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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20.056429, 20.371291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.5, "volume": 1921, "typical_volume": 2641.85, "trend": 20.783333, "fair_value": 24.561004, "relative_strength": -1.224384, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.132218, "energy": 33.466827, "activity_lines": [ 20.96, 20.368182, 20.167381, 20.416452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.5, "volume": 1611, "typical_volume": 2617.85, "trend": 20.773333, "fair_value": 24.496722, "relative_strength": -1.014522, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.417007, "energy": 56.415026, "activity_lines": [ 21.303333, 20.63, 20.279286, 20.462688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.5, "volume": 3524, "typical_volume": 2654.9, "trend": 20.763333, "fair_value": 24.437885, "relative_strength": -1.263158, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.512651, "energy": 60.629793, "activity_lines": [ 21.48, 20.859091, 20.393572, 20.50957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.5, "volume": 1113, "typical_volume": 2602.55, "trend": 20.753334, "fair_value": 24.376023, "relative_strength": -2.576827, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.19772, "energy": 58.474124, "activity_lines": [ 21.533333, 21.055455, 20.505476, 20.557097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.200001, "volume": 4533, "typical_volume": 2759.7, "trend": 20.736667, "fair_value": 24.313449, "relative_strength": -5.832575, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.367947, "energy": 40.955067, "activity_lines": [ 21.4, 21.163637, 20.591191, 20.585914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }