{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01ab2ce2-8ad1-4282-8f73-4a322dc66f3a", "symbol": "ALITL", "name": "IT Link SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.783, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.962, "architecture_energy": 15.919, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 51.234, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.74, "rotation_up": 39.24, "upward_expansion": 23.21, "deceleration": 41.31, "rotation_down": 19.15, "downward_expansion": 57.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.14, 15.770446, 15.91768, 16.198174 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 16.799999, "trend_reference": 17.081794, "distance_from_trend": -0.016497, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.264426, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.307628, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.346272, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.225807, "excess_performance": -0.279118, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016497, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109937, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.307628, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024801, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057336, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.225807, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.778716, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5475, "relative_activity": 0.805965, "balance": 1.778716, "dry_up": 1.026483, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039144, "annualized_volatility": 0.365124, "from_high_reference": -0.373134, "from_low_reference": 0.146758 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.081794, "fair_value_reference": 24.264426, "structural_low": 14.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.009091, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.003781, "regime_survival": 0.62963, "best_return": 0.188755, "worst_return": -0.08209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.014981, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.033992, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.128938, "worst_return": -0.281532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.043103, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.002356, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.461848, "worst_return": -0.297357, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 6675.95, "trend": 17.441794, "fair_value": 24.369964, "relative_strength": -25.847946, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.242959, "energy": 54.226194, "activity_lines": [ 15.25397, 15.408767, 15.780573, 16.282277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.6, "volume": 14797, "typical_volume": 6916.55, "trend": 17.261794, "fair_value": 24.313445, "relative_strength": -19.370311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.552414, "energy": 23.48583, "activity_lines": [ 15.72, 15.568697, 15.838174, 16.227967 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.799999, "volume": 5475, "typical_volume": 6793.1, "trend": 17.081794, "fair_value": 24.264426, "relative_strength": -19.346272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.961793, "energy": 15.918994, "activity_lines": [ 16.14, 15.770446, 15.91768, 16.198174 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }