{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01ac2be0-9b3d-460b-bb04-af46719ff155", "symbol": "FCMC", "name": "Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Fermi\u00e8re du Casino Municipal de Cannes", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.361, "architecture_energy": 62.25, "architecture_maturity": 58.566, "architecture_confidence": 84.214, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.15, "rotation_up": 50.75, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 67.07, "rotation_down": 28.52, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 2857.333333, 2848.727273, 2712.571429, 2588.903226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2800.0, "trend_reference": 2442.0, "distance_from_trend": 0.146601, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1733.333333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.615385, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.860561, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.272727, "excess_performance": 0.219416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.146601, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170475, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.615385, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.255484, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.248606, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014866, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.272727, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.844262, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68, "relative_activity": 1.150592, "balance": 1.844262, "dry_up": 1.07022, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041758, "annualized_volatility": 0.391003, "from_high_reference": -0.054054, "from_low_reference": 0.917808 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2442.0, "fair_value_reference": 1733.333333, "structural_low": 2000.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.01623, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": 0.02614, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.214286, "worst_return": -0.096774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.03808, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.378641, "worst_return": -0.051095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.190666, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.126225, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.466667, "worst_return": -0.072993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.135849, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.108752, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.866667, "worst_return": -0.147727, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013514, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013514, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006711, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051613, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020548, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080645, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029412, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1710.0, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 12.9, "trend": 1612.901575, "fair_value": 1271.755495, "relative_strength": 13.569343, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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2172.666667, "fair_value": 1675.576923, "relative_strength": 44.552251, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.619883, "energy": 93.250024, "activity_lines": [ 2660.0, 2512.0, 2388.095238, 2312.258065 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 2800.0, "volume": 22, "typical_volume": 46.85, "trend": 2217.0, "fair_value": 1682.692308, "relative_strength": 39.771279, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.578761, "energy": 90.762223, "activity_lines": [ 2741.333333, 2578.545455, 2434.666667, 2352.731183 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 2780.0, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 46.1, "trend": 2261.0, "fair_value": 1689.615385, "relative_strength": 37.83737, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.916435, "energy": 87.837071, "activity_lines": [ 2781.333333, 2635.636364, 2476.761905, 2389.053763 ] }, { 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"energy": 89.102868, "activity_lines": [ 2873.333333, 2801.818182, 2615.047619, 2501.16129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2920.0, "volume": 74, "typical_volume": 58.7, "trend": 2395.333333, "fair_value": 1719.871795, "relative_strength": 38.228641, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.536812, "energy": 70.706631, "activity_lines": [ 2898.666667, 2841.818182, 2658.47619, 2536.860215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2820.0, "volume": 71, "typical_volume": 62.0, "trend": 2418.0, "fair_value": 1726.666667, "relative_strength": 30.025739, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.693053, "energy": 70.39345, "activity_lines": [ 2882.666667, 2852.0, 2688.285714, 2564.258065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2800.0, "volume": 68, "typical_volume": 59.1, "trend": 2442.0, "fair_value": 1733.333333, "relative_strength": 24.860561, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.360535, "energy": 62.250004, "activity_lines": [ 2857.333333, 2848.727273, 2712.571429, 2588.903226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }