{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01b69b2c-6bf5-474a-a627-f0704f41e9fb", "symbol": "600639", "name": "Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone Development Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.254, "architecture_energy": 31.421, "architecture_maturity": 82.615, "architecture_confidence": 90.551, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.33, "rotation_up": 27.73, "upward_expansion": 18.1, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 33.51, "downward_expansion": 68.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.406626, 9.298718, 9.571293, 9.855233 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.45, "trend_reference": 10.163306, "distance_from_trend": -0.070184, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.449136, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095619, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.605089, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.105114, "excess_performance": -0.06191, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070184, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041258, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095619, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075245, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086051, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02346, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105114, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.34778, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24055908, "relative_activity": 0.91397, "balance": 0.34778, "dry_up": 1.023596, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042276, "annualized_volatility": 0.219197, "from_high_reference": -0.186047, "from_low_reference": 0.068101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.163306, "fair_value_reference": 10.449136, "structural_low": 8.847475, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.001905, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.005346, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.501984, "worst_return": -0.093834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.035681, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.017288, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.13963, "worst_return": -0.038397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073915, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.005199, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.292641, "worst_return": -0.094129, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 9.07, "volume": 26737018, "typical_volume": 29038519.85, "trend": 10.207973, "fair_value": 10.467807, "relative_strength": -10.039803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.471885, "energy": 61.540813, "activity_lines": [ 9.13637, 9.213052, 9.655571, 9.934498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.72, "volume": 26344906, "typical_volume": 28147937.4, "trend": 10.19064, "fair_value": 10.460745, "relative_strength": -3.728646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.445542, "energy": 43.655193, "activity_lines": [ 9.339185, 9.27834, 9.623289, 9.903016 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.45, "volume": 24055908, "typical_volume": 26320237.85, "trend": 10.163306, "fair_value": 10.449136, "relative_strength": -8.605089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.254462, "energy": 31.420634, "activity_lines": [ 9.406626, 9.298718, 9.571293, 9.855233 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }