{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01b9c8d5-7af0-4da2-ab4b-cbb258f82e19", "symbol": "688622", "name": "Guangzhou Hexin Instrument Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 49.021, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.728, "architecture_energy": 21.369, "architecture_maturity": 58.954, "architecture_confidence": 83.852, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.93, "rotation_up": 17.68, "upward_expansion": 46.42, "deceleration": 93.7, "rotation_down": 41.36, "downward_expansion": 26.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 104.793335, 111.414365, 108.035191, 104.862173 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 108.050003, "trend_reference": 103.827, "distance_from_trend": 0.040673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 65.228846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.656476, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.180067, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.142298, "excess_performance": 0.185502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040673, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021091, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.656476, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.240108, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001801, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.246109, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142298, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.175257, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2500504, "relative_activity": 0.433343, "balance": 1.175257, "dry_up": 0.535358, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1742, "annualized_volatility": 1.099882, "from_high_reference": -0.349214, "from_low_reference": 0.649618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.827, "fair_value_reference": 65.228846, "structural_low": 65.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.036149, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.067055, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.384882, "worst_return": -0.218637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.09194, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.078894, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.511486, "worst_return": -0.426426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002156, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01353, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.4772, "worst_return": -0.587204, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132153, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.302981, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13287, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047706, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110639, "active": 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114.512728, 106.621382, 104.315463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 107.510002, "volume": 3149570, "typical_volume": 6516980.5, "trend": 103.596333, "fair_value": 64.73141, "relative_strength": 1.994486, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.073698, "energy": 24.121783, "activity_lines": [ 104.902667, 113.166364, 107.375572, 104.574839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108.050003, "volume": 2500504, "typical_volume": 5770262.3, "trend": 103.827, "fair_value": 65.228846, "relative_strength": -0.180067, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.727573, "energy": 21.368683, "activity_lines": [ 104.793335, 111.414365, 108.035191, 104.862173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }