{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01bb4c95-c831-4290-bce5-97a00bd306d1", "symbol": "PIM", "name": "Pinnacle Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.909, "architecture_energy": 34.117, "architecture_maturity": 25.797, "architecture_confidence": 92.675, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.1, "rotation_up": 27.05, "upward_expansion": 12.09, "deceleration": 36.73, "rotation_down": 49.85, "downward_expansion": 71.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.042133, 0.043127, 0.043205, 0.044039 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.036, "trend_reference": 0.0463, "distance_from_trend": -0.222462, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.073115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.507628, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.226615, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.234043, "excess_performance": -0.297748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.222462, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168263, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.507628, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.502266, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129114, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234043, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.483989, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 388274, "relative_activity": 0.818248, "balance": 0.483989, "dry_up": 0.661845, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134615, "annualized_volatility": 0.893075, "from_high_reference": -0.853061, "from_low_reference": 0.090909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0463, "fair_value_reference": 0.073115, "structural_low": 0.033, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.090196, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.094577, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.975, "worst_return": -0.105263, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.838816, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.804744, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.625, "worst_return": 0.052632, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.163377, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.170156, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.625, "worst_return": -0.298246, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092308, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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"typical_volume": 710466.65, "trend": 0.048, "fair_value": 0.074462, "relative_strength": -28.384487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.795443, "energy": 7.65201, "activity_lines": [ 0.044533, 0.043473, 0.043743, 0.045189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.049, "volume": 213024, "typical_volume": 667451.2, "trend": 0.0479, "fair_value": 0.074154, "relative_strength": -29.913042, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.352514, "energy": 16.367618, "activity_lines": [ 0.046667, 0.044527, 0.044171, 0.045254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.048, "volume": 365159, "typical_volume": 588929.85, "trend": 0.047667, "fair_value": 0.073853, "relative_strength": -31.294808, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.519419, "energy": 34.254854, "activity_lines": [ 0.047933, 0.045291, 0.044481, 0.04526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.04, "volume": 289775, "typical_volume": 506623.5, "trend": 0.047267, "fair_value": 0.073481, "relative_strength": -43.635125, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.869491, "energy": 23.356264, "activity_lines": [ 0.045933, 0.044545, 0.043995, 0.044766 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.036, "volume": 388274, "typical_volume": 474518.75, "trend": 0.0463, "fair_value": 0.073115, "relative_strength": -50.226615, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.909304, "energy": 34.116506, "activity_lines": [ 0.042133, 0.043127, 0.043205, 0.044039 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }