{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01bf97b3-e179-48eb-af4a-4455387706a3", "symbol": "ACAD", "name": "AcadeMedia AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 86.7, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.561, "architecture_energy": 9.415, "architecture_maturity": 56.607, "architecture_confidence": 57.532, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.61, "rotation_up": 24.93, "upward_expansion": 44.08, "deceleration": 78.14, "rotation_down": 34.5, "downward_expansion": 33.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.28, 100.085455, 100.336191, 99.950753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 97.5, "trend_reference": 98.866667, "distance_from_trend": -0.013823, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 72.63309, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.342363, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.777606, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.091825, "excess_performance": 0.030331, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0023, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.342363, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045387, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117776, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031451, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091825, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.446797, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 331419, "relative_activity": 0.589257, "balance": 0.446797, "dry_up": 0.705509, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06501, "annualized_volatility": 0.297949, "from_high_reference": -0.108775, "from_low_reference": 0.164206 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 98.866667, "fair_value_reference": 72.63309, "structural_low": 85.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.019, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.028364, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.122881, "worst_return": -0.19683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.024367, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.083738, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.08055, "worst_return": -0.296476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.090014, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.021697, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.277014, "worst_return": -0.31473, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 101.199997, "volume": 535443, "typical_volume": 662845.15, "trend": 98.9, "fair_value": 71.627871, "relative_strength": -4.162209, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.683593, "energy": 35.245623, "activity_lines": [ 102.646666, 101.370909, 100.899524, 100.03957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 98.099998, "volume": 389522, "typical_volume": 608952.75, "trend": 98.92, "fair_value": 71.956549, "relative_strength": -8.459679, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.508074, "energy": 22.920488, "activity_lines": [ 101.539999, 100.754545, 100.660476, 99.987957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 99.800003, "volume": 330828, "typical_volume": 571583.1, "trend": 98.956667, "fair_value": 72.301838, "relative_strength": -8.032116, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.397726, "energy": 13.379592, "activity_lines": [ 100.786667, 100.565455, 100.607619, 100.044731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 97.5, "volume": 331419, "typical_volume": 562435.2, "trend": 98.866667, "fair_value": 72.63309, "relative_strength": -11.777606, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.561178, "energy": 9.414627, "activity_lines": [ 99.28, 100.085455, 100.336191, 99.950753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }