{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01c452c0-2e97-42da-b4b1-b6f5c91249ed", "symbol": "WDTE", "name": "Invesco Markets II plc - Invesco S&P World Information Technology ESG UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.316, "architecture_energy": 46.587, "architecture_maturity": 61.851, "architecture_confidence": 71.003, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.87, "rotation_up": 40.03, "upward_expansion": 68.33, "deceleration": 76.71, "rotation_down": 28.11, "downward_expansion": 11.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.8024, 12.721309, 12.62801, 12.262951 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.578, "trend_reference": 11.8388, "distance_from_trend": 0.146907, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.546942, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.422235, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.996524, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.237063, "excess_performance": 0.154179, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.146907, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040389, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.422235, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030448, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059965, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052792, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.237063, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.441567, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1199, "relative_activity": 0.504131, "balance": 6.441567, "dry_up": 0.487313, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033334, "annualized_volatility": 0.242246, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.363253 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.8388, "fair_value_reference": 9.546942, "structural_low": 9.96, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005247, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009339, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.062109, "worst_return": -0.01531, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.047569, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.059879, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.047569, "worst_return": -0.047569, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.136586, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.101651, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136586, "worst_return": 0.136586, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058413, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.200611, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060631, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071565, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005247, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041343, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046537, "active": false }, { "regime": 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30.741072, "activity_lines": [ 12.531333, 12.699091, 12.409962, 12.05797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.322, "volume": 985, "typical_volume": 2374.45, "trend": 11.734667, "fair_value": 9.460949, "relative_strength": -2.335827, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.082151, "energy": 27.897516, "activity_lines": [ 12.427333, 12.613273, 12.445114, 12.097806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.484, "volume": 1307, "typical_volume": 2413.3, "trend": 11.7676, "fair_value": 9.499558, "relative_strength": -1.118531, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.199727, "energy": 22.280557, "activity_lines": [ 12.432267, 12.564691, 12.488886, 12.146151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.578, "volume": 1199, "typical_volume": 2378.35, "trend": 11.8388, "fair_value": 9.546942, "relative_strength": 5.996524, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.3163, "energy": 46.587423, "activity_lines": [ 12.8024, 12.721309, 12.62801, 12.262951 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }