{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01c6906d-a9a3-4210-be9d-6d69377fe889", "symbol": "EIDO", "name": "iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.123, "architecture_energy": 65.765, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.916, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.14, "rotation_up": 29.86, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 54.54, "rotation_down": 54.77, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 199.089996, 200.890997, 212.805128, 230.9132 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 199.089996, "trend_reference": 257.646402, "distance_from_trend": -0.227274, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 342.500883, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.418717, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.606691, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.356196, "excess_performance": -0.301529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.227274, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154546, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.418717, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136126, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336067, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048897, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.356196, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048721, "annualized_volatility": 0.346481, "from_high_reference": -0.431171, "from_low_reference": 0.081531 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 257.646402, "fair_value_reference": 342.500883, "structural_low": 184.08168, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.00139, "positive_rate": 0.425, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001381, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.120172, "worst_return": -0.14726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.026654, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.051427, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.170407, "worst_return": -0.225831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.063318, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.110535, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.182756, "worst_return": -0.116827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 199.089996, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 260.35, "trend": 267.040403, "fair_value": 344.973083, "relative_strength": -34.581026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.352591, "energy": 63.159051, "activity_lines": [ 202.769998, 202.390356, 219.891578, 239.377962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 199.089996, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 259.05, "trend": 262.343402, "fair_value": 343.678676, "relative_strength": -34.356254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.458945, "energy": 67.469313, "activity_lines": [ 200.316663, 201.376551, 216.141424, 234.994065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 199.089996, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 259.05, "trend": 257.646402, "fair_value": 342.500883, "relative_strength": -33.606691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.123254, "energy": 65.764639, "activity_lines": [ 199.089996, 200.890997, 212.805128, 230.9132 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }