{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01d31b43-8b91-478b-844b-d6d08de5469b", "symbol": "EUSRU", "name": "UBS MSCI EMU Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hUSD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.543, "architecture_energy": 68.045, "architecture_maturity": 74.088, "architecture_confidence": 63.817, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.23, "rotation_up": 50.58, "upward_expansion": 80.67, "deceleration": 72.81, "rotation_down": 29.72, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.704, 34.658545, 34.147905, 33.476613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 35.470001, "trend_reference": 32.766667, "distance_from_trend": 0.082503, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.222647, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.256792, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.079612, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111042, "excess_performance": 0.028158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082503, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034388, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.256792, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056342, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020407, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111042, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.987437, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 350, "relative_activity": 0.369413, "balance": 3.987437, "dry_up": 0.289197, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014151, "annualized_volatility": 0.156687, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.224581 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.766667, "fair_value_reference": 28.222647, "structural_low": 28.965, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.006415, "positive_rate": 0.564103, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.001023, "regime_survival": 0.717949, "best_return": 0.064116, "worst_return": -0.102229, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.009558, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.013958, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.094115, "worst_return": -0.064429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05202, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.052636, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.125964, "worst_return": -0.029648, "sufficient": true }, { 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32.019334, "fair_value": 27.698224, "relative_strength": 3.198516, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.161642, "energy": 92.629426, "activity_lines": [ 34.463332, 33.842363, 32.820976, 32.443914 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 34.599998, "volume": 1025, "typical_volume": 1652.2, "trend": 32.1395, "fair_value": 27.774378, "relative_strength": -0.491844, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.350317, "energy": 88.093399, "activity_lines": [ 34.567665, 34.064272, 33.043595, 32.610409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 34.994999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1614.7, "trend": 32.264, "fair_value": 27.855115, "relative_strength": -1.053318, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.619473, "energy": 90.565114, "activity_lines": [ 34.738999, 34.32509, 33.291095, 32.794634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.514999, "volume": 1015, "typical_volume": 1612.7, "trend": 32.375333, "fair_value": 27.927776, "relative_strength": -1.025585, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.712925, "energy": 85.110332, "activity_lines": [ 34.695332, 34.447454, 33.478785, 32.93986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.41, "volume": 44, "typical_volume": 1604.9, "trend": 32.477, "fair_value": 28.000404, "relative_strength": -1.981786, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.856515, "energy": 79.608527, "activity_lines": [ 34.612333, 34.506454, 33.646547, 33.071129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.205002, "volume": 702, "typical_volume": 1017.95, "trend": 32.571833, "fair_value": 28.068385, "relative_strength": -2.349445, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.053779, "energy": 58.087599, "activity_lines": [ 34.453334, 34.497727, 33.785809, 33.182613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.314999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 982.95, "trend": 32.656167, "fair_value": 28.141173, "relative_strength": -2.057738, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.611032, "energy": 50.446798, "activity_lines": [ 34.376667, 34.479363, 33.920285, 33.295075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.470001, "volume": 350, "typical_volume": 947.45, "trend": 32.766667, "fair_value": 28.222647, "relative_strength": -0.079612, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.543499, "energy": 68.045442, "activity_lines": [ 34.704, 34.658545, 34.147905, 33.476613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }