{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01d4d5d8-fcc7-4eb2-8f2f-1b266e5a5c45", "symbol": "301110", "name": "Qingmu Tec Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.513, "architecture_energy": 47.783, "architecture_maturity": 55.611, "architecture_confidence": 90.434, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.99, "rotation_up": 18.33, "upward_expansion": 6.68, "deceleration": 52.17, "rotation_down": 56.61, "downward_expansion": 77.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.775999, 36.484181, 39.438271, 41.197338 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.619999, "trend_reference": 44.455815, "distance_from_trend": -0.153767, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.37032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127349, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.509498, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.34162, "excess_performance": -0.34902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153767, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080511, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.127349, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.411583, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107846, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.34162, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.7227, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25160374, "relative_activity": 1.299114, "balance": 0.7227, "dry_up": 1.094985, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117694, "annualized_volatility": 0.532547, "from_high_reference": -0.497977, "from_low_reference": 0.205769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.455815, "fair_value_reference": 33.37032, "structural_low": 31.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.063172, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.028844, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.26169, "worst_return": -0.147551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.091289, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.066259, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.522074, "worst_return": -0.164492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.523568, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.268975, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.562129, "worst_return": -0.27925, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.128279, "energy": 68.894073, "activity_lines": [ 37.908666, 39.758336, 42.020866, 43.780099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.349998, "volume": 18941008, "typical_volume": 18105327.65, "trend": 45.508054, "fair_value": 33.17259, "relative_strength": -24.175282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.043574, "energy": 63.70387, "activity_lines": [ 36.955999, 38.544233, 41.290724, 43.101163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.59, "volume": 15379136, "typical_volume": 18111865.9, "trend": 45.0484, "fair_value": 33.219247, "relative_strength": -32.122027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.704326, "energy": 76.277174, "activity_lines": [ 34.989332, 36.907332, 40.269859, 42.203224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.599998, "volume": 25347232, "typical_volume": 18711174.8, "trend": 44.762823, "fair_value": 33.292015, "relative_strength": -19.920889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.727053, "energy": 60.111356, "activity_lines": [ 35.217999, 36.537817, 39.79052, 41.658166 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.619999, "volume": 25160374, "typical_volume": 19367333.0, "trend": 44.455815, "fair_value": 33.37032, "relative_strength": -21.509498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.513446, "energy": 47.78251, "activity_lines": [ 35.775999, 36.484181, 39.438271, 41.197338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }