{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01d6d95c-f26e-473b-a89f-a057affde13e", "symbol": "SUS", "name": "S&U plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.739, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.127, "architecture_energy": 22.597, "architecture_maturity": 30.128, "architecture_confidence": 84.971, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.33, "rotation_up": 21.35, "upward_expansion": 1.47, "deceleration": 52.86, "rotation_down": 43.54, "downward_expansion": 74.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 1945.666667, 1946.237242, 1948.504929, 1973.86957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1940.0, "trend_reference": 2043.371182, "distance_from_trend": -0.050589, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1857.517897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044404, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.981549, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.184755, "excess_performance": -0.23599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050589, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00579, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044404, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033381, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089815, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105939, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.184755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.95375, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16604, "relative_activity": 0.609152, "balance": 1.95375, "dry_up": 0.463046, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053869, "annualized_volatility": 0.362834, "from_high_reference": -0.210786, "from_low_reference": 0.197941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2043.371182, "fair_value_reference": 1857.517897, "structural_low": 1715.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.036232, "positive_rate": 0.210526, "directional_follow_through": 0.210526, "median_excess_return": -0.03965, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.178475, "worst_return": -0.140028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.051984, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.061972, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.221578, "worst_return": -0.198794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.148387, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.213568, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.160904, "worst_return": -0.247863, "sufficient": 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"stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.047474, "energy": 17.365234, "activity_lines": [ 1957.195573, 1949.07194, 1953.273431, 2003.90487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1945.0, "volume": 5337, "typical_volume": 31773.95, "trend": 2062.34007, "fair_value": 1865.58915, "relative_strength": -6.589638, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.867757, "energy": 16.298876, "activity_lines": [ 1956.590133, 1947.739279, 1950.569401, 1996.249144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1945.0, "volume": 11619, "typical_volume": 30750.4, "trend": 2061.516315, "fair_value": 1862.696067, "relative_strength": -7.704634, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.3858, "energy": 15.252703, "activity_lines": [ 1954.636053, 1948.125375, 1949.365371, 1988.678817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1945.0, "volume": 16926, "typical_volume": 29061.35, "trend": 2053.027009, "fair_value": 1859.482965, "relative_strength": -8.709916, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.725718, "energy": 16.113652, "activity_lines": [ 1951.333333, 1947.503581, 1948.851816, 1981.161635 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1940.0, "volume": 16604, "typical_volume": 27257.55, "trend": 2043.371182, "fair_value": 1857.517897, "relative_strength": -8.981549, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.127188, "energy": 22.597172, "activity_lines": [ 1945.666667, 1946.237242, 1948.504929, 1973.86957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }