{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01d9879d-e708-4706-b8e6-5a46d7e82e57", "symbol": "FPLUS16", "name": "Fibra Plus", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.914, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.815, "architecture_energy": 28.538, "architecture_maturity": 29.967, "architecture_confidence": 93.759, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.43, "rotation_up": 21.44, "upward_expansion": 2.49, "deceleration": 51.87, "rotation_down": 49.18, "downward_expansion": 78.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.046, 5.065273, 5.122429, 5.172172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.99, "trend_reference": 5.248333, "distance_from_trend": -0.049222, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.040962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.173973, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.20034, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.079336, "excess_performance": -0.024669, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049222, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017043, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.173973, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032168, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072003, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06221, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079336, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.402541, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 244582, "relative_activity": 0.972851, "balance": 0.402541, "dry_up": 0.977297, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055496, "annualized_volatility": 0.154761, "from_high_reference": -0.21169, "from_low_reference": 0.066239 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.248333, "fair_value_reference": 6.040962, "structural_low": 4.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.016494, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.033711, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.551724, "worst_return": -0.155714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.015738, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01149, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.711694, "worst_return": -0.283839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.057143, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.066377, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.498, "worst_return": -0.228395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082512, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020027, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014975, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053803, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073801, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071918, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.066176, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031068, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.56, "volume": 148374, "typical_volume": 187106.45, "trend": 6.453964, "fair_value": 8.729936, "relative_strength": -23.665122, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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5.195524, 5.249398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.05, "volume": 205117, "typical_volume": 234515.35, "trend": 5.305, "fair_value": 6.071731, "relative_strength": -7.478596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.754431, "energy": 33.503216, "activity_lines": [ 5.070667, 5.099818, 5.177762, 5.232151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.15, "volume": 229016, "typical_volume": 235831.65, "trend": 5.305, "fair_value": 6.061538, "relative_strength": -5.230209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.489334, "energy": 26.174303, "activity_lines": [ 5.091333, 5.103273, 5.171286, 5.222151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.09, "volume": 204746, "typical_volume": 239794.2, "trend": 5.303, "fair_value": 6.053205, "relative_strength": -5.476789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.95129, "energy": 26.486536, "activity_lines": [ 5.095333, 5.097455, 5.159571, 5.20828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.03, "volume": 304455, "typical_volume": 247496.95, "trend": 5.276667, "fair_value": 6.046987, "relative_strength": -6.865406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.828447, "energy": 26.767259, "activity_lines": [ 5.073333, 5.084182, 5.142667, 5.190667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.99, "volume": 244582, "typical_volume": 251407.35, "trend": 5.248333, "fair_value": 6.040962, "relative_strength": -7.20034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.814779, "energy": 28.538134, "activity_lines": [ 5.046, 5.065273, 5.122429, 5.172172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }