{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01dfb414-0ff5-4d77-9e2a-d043db446f34", "symbol": "NILASPACES", "name": "Nila Spaces Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.9, "architecture_energy": 55.616, "architecture_maturity": 23.771, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.84, "rotation_up": 15.41, "upward_expansion": 11.51, "deceleration": 39.78, "rotation_down": 60.33, "downward_expansion": 84.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.118, 12.306727, 12.651381, 12.872796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.27, "trend_reference": 13.224, "distance_from_trend": -0.072142, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.081154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.107285, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.924356, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.189028, "excess_performance": -0.145319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072142, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090738, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.107285, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.396448, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149244, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245844, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.189028, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.265268, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3207047, "relative_activity": 1.506106, "balance": 0.265268, "dry_up": 0.803262, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068209, "annualized_volatility": 0.372282, "from_high_reference": -0.400586, "from_low_reference": 0.081057 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.224, "fair_value_reference": 11.081154, "structural_low": 11.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.020796, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.001434, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.764706, "worst_return": -0.129378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.215939, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.11848, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.470588, "worst_return": -0.099357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.551721, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.400631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.058824, "worst_return": 0.145455, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061483, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016736, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125328, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103381, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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-53.97262, "energy": 47.138231, "activity_lines": [ 12.65, 12.896, 13.11981, 13.400581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.73, "volume": 435751, "typical_volume": 2268743.85, "trend": 13.828667, "fair_value": 10.799038, "relative_strength": -11.73285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.204363, "energy": 32.552951, "activity_lines": [ 12.703333, 12.820545, 13.067238, 13.322731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.53, "volume": 1183656, "typical_volume": 2205214.4, "trend": 13.720667, "fair_value": 10.856923, "relative_strength": -12.640311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.896425, "energy": 28.042037, "activity_lines": [ 12.681333, 12.716, 13.003, 13.238946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.33, "volume": 1384209, "typical_volume": 2176089.1, "trend": 13.596333, "fair_value": 10.913846, "relative_strength": -14.150144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.28482, "energy": 32.442905, "activity_lines": [ 12.578667, 12.594, 12.926952, 13.149226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.89, "volume": 1188903, "typical_volume": 2125541.3, "trend": 13.439333, "fair_value": 10.968269, "relative_strength": -15.069371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.691762, "energy": 46.351954, "activity_lines": [ 12.312, 12.449455, 12.816905, 13.03914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.89, "volume": 1061592, "typical_volume": 2075327.0, "trend": 13.299, "fair_value": 11.023013, "relative_strength": -17.068744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.7636, "energy": 55.952394, "activity_lines": [ 12.119333, 12.334364, 12.713238, 12.939183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.27, "volume": 3207047, "typical_volume": 2129363.4, "trend": 13.224, "fair_value": 11.081154, "relative_strength": -14.924356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.899871, "energy": 55.616347, "activity_lines": [ 12.118, 12.306727, 12.651381, 12.872796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }