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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.082, "architecture_energy": 74.409, "architecture_maturity": 25.195, "architecture_confidence": 81.771, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.37, "rotation_up": 72.76, "upward_expansion": 89.0, "deceleration": 46.12, "rotation_down": 11.4, "downward_expansion": 15.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 248.109333, 242.387779, 232.724417, 228.080955 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 256.04, "trend_reference": 224.609625, "distance_from_trend": 0.139933, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 192.723032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.328539, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.953, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.085204, "excess_performance": -0.04042, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.139933, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056831, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.328539, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114891, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05953, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092349, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085204, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.508815, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2708547, "relative_activity": 0.761121, "balance": 2.508815, "dry_up": 1.038821, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054767, "annualized_volatility": 0.264356, "from_high_reference": -0.010695, "from_low_reference": 0.362393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 224.609625, "fair_value_reference": 192.723032, "structural_low": 199.945779, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.01306, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.007163, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.112863, "worst_return": -0.124071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.025361, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.010859, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.210419, "worst_return": -0.144433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.095501, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.008204, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.168731, "worst_return": -0.053772, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.599941, "energy": 64.805576, "activity_lines": [ 240.566, 235.529366, 227.107815, 224.433914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 245.84, "volume": 4185579, "typical_volume": 3920220.25, "trend": 223.297153, "fair_value": 191.983079, "relative_strength": 5.478815, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.67905, "energy": 52.993425, "activity_lines": [ 242.780667, 238.316111, 229.50833, 225.968513 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 256.04, "volume": 2708547, "typical_volume": 3558627.85, "trend": 224.609625, "fair_value": 192.723032, "relative_strength": 5.953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.08161, "energy": 74.40922, "activity_lines": [ 248.109333, 242.387779, 232.724417, 228.080955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }