{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01e5ddd6-9c0a-4932-a4dd-c9d1e09260a4", "symbol": "MUJ", "name": "BlackRock MuniHoldings New Jersey Quality Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.844, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.036, "architecture_energy": 20.829, "architecture_maturity": 61.756, "architecture_confidence": 75.673, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.88, "rotation_up": 31.3, "upward_expansion": 57.79, "deceleration": 84.36, "rotation_down": 34.74, "downward_expansion": 21.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.147726, 12.187635, 12.162231, 12.108641 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.29, "trend_reference": 12.051036, "distance_from_trend": 0.019829, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.676563, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.15112, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.381266, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.03835, "excess_performance": -0.087275, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019829, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017333, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.15112, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024288, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063813, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03682, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03835, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.85088, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 487109, "relative_activity": 1.024419, "balance": 0.85088, "dry_up": 0.837889, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019544, "annualized_volatility": 0.118325, "from_high_reference": -0.01347, "from_low_reference": 0.184693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.051036, "fair_value_reference": 10.676563, "structural_low": 11.229749, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.007716, "positive_rate": 0.695652, "directional_follow_through": 0.695652, "median_excess_return": -0.010969, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.037671, "worst_return": -0.095863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -4.4e-05, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.057307, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.058867, "worst_return": -0.141656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.010395, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.063208, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.023633, "worst_return": -0.098509, "sufficient": true 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"typical_volume": 479612.95, "trend": 12.010327, "fair_value": 10.626435, "relative_strength": -3.149937, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.949572, "energy": 39.181193, "activity_lines": [ 12.270678, 12.248921, 12.147897, 12.09427 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.03, "volume": 417607, "typical_volume": 474826.35, "trend": 12.022756, "fair_value": 10.642296, "relative_strength": -4.264951, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.441883, "energy": 18.249131, "activity_lines": [ 12.191062, 12.214848, 12.145201, 12.095539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.97, "volume": 384485, "typical_volume": 472483.2, "trend": 12.034159, "fair_value": 10.658321, "relative_strength": -5.685464, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.810362, "energy": 12.510063, "activity_lines": [ 12.10785, 12.171086, 12.138126, 12.092135 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.29, "volume": 487109, "typical_volume": 475497.85, "trend": 12.051036, "fair_value": 10.676563, "relative_strength": -6.381266, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.035763, "energy": 20.829188, "activity_lines": [ 12.147726, 12.187635, 12.162231, 12.108641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }