{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01f164b0-b1e7-413e-a749-a30942b47e76", "symbol": "PMNT", "name": "PIMCO Global Short Maturity Fund (Canada) ETF Series", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.831, "architecture_energy": 70.387, "architecture_maturity": 6.323, "architecture_confidence": 69.414, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.73, "rotation_up": 72.65, "upward_expansion": 90.12, "deceleration": 43.41, "rotation_down": 12.74, "downward_expansion": 14.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.666398, 18.653587, 18.641291, 18.627571 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.68, "trend_reference": 18.604953, "distance_from_trend": 0.004034, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.885914, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044397, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.483815, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.007237, "excess_performance": -0.113184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004034, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003702, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044397, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005968, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104838, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000986, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007237, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.903509, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7600, "relative_activity": 0.883721, "balance": 6.903509, "dry_up": 1.534884, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001692, "annualized_volatility": 0.009928, "from_high_reference": -0.00107, "from_low_reference": 0.025061 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.604953, "fair_value_reference": 17.885914, "structural_low": 18.545784, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 51, "median_return": 0.003157, "positive_rate": 0.882353, "directional_follow_through": 0.882353, "median_excess_return": -0.015078, "regime_survival": 0.960784, "best_return": 0.008401, "worst_return": -0.002569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.01032, "positive_rate": 0.9375, "directional_follow_through": 0.9375, "median_excess_return": -0.02965, "regime_survival": 0.9375, "best_return": 0.016852, "worst_return": -0.00315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.019524, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.047285, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.030475, "worst_return": -0.001837, "sufficient": true 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-9.707527, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.267339, "energy": 20.693873, "activity_lines": [ 18.630135, 18.633834, 18.623298, 18.607936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.651964, "volume": 3400, "typical_volume": 6990.0, "trend": 18.58664, "fair_value": 17.847183, "relative_strength": -9.09107, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.433194, "energy": 33.407688, "activity_lines": [ 18.63676, 18.637599, 18.627036, 18.612575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.66, "volume": 25300, "typical_volume": 7685.0, "trend": 18.592522, "fair_value": 17.860159, "relative_strength": -8.913707, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.053399, "energy": 45.180788, "activity_lines": [ 18.647336, 18.64196, 18.631175, 18.617308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.67, "volume": 16500, "typical_volume": 8275.0, "trend": 18.598407, "fair_value": 17.873088, "relative_strength": -8.051279, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.132944, "energy": 60.751923, "activity_lines": [ 18.656798, 18.647127, 18.635958, 18.622307 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.68, "volume": 7600, "typical_volume": 8600.0, "trend": 18.604953, "fair_value": 17.885914, "relative_strength": -10.483815, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.831269, "energy": 70.387072, "activity_lines": [ 18.666398, 18.653587, 18.641291, 18.627571 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }