{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01f9f4f3-a262-4291-9d4d-5ad2bd4e8f02", "symbol": "ORLY34", "name": "O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 84.833, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.605, "architecture_energy": 12.866, "architecture_maturity": 75.257, "architecture_confidence": 65.412, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.04, "rotation_up": 26.46, "upward_expansion": 16.7, "deceleration": 56.86, "rotation_down": 34.34, "downward_expansion": 62.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.467333, 1.463273, 1.470381, 1.488624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.54, "trend_reference": 1.522667, "distance_from_trend": 0.011384, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.435914, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.072487, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.123574, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.031447, "excess_performance": 0.025602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011384, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043751, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.072487, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025825, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091236, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17348, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031447, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.78239, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25696, "relative_activity": 0.728555, "balance": 0.78239, "dry_up": 1.095505, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058442, "annualized_volatility": 0.24668, "from_high_reference": -0.218274, "from_low_reference": 0.140741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.522667, "fair_value_reference": 1.435914, "structural_low": 1.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.016026, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006219, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.179985, "worst_return": -0.063661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.082681, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.022819, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.179985, "worst_return": -0.097936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.047057, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056414, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.064422, "worst_return": -0.158537, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 1.545667, "fair_value": 1.423256, "relative_strength": -22.261477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.084531, "energy": 33.224222, "activity_lines": [ 1.465333, 1.469273, 1.48519, 1.509742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.38, "volume": 46530, "typical_volume": 35968.5, "trend": 1.537, "fair_value": 1.42582, "relative_strength": -21.418788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.627811, "energy": 43.495813, "activity_lines": [ 1.434667, 1.453091, 1.473381, 1.499054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.42, "volume": 33465, "typical_volume": 35354.4, "trend": 1.529, "fair_value": 1.428897, "relative_strength": -18.514986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.359346, "energy": 42.260187, "activity_lines": [ 1.424667, 1.445636, 1.466238, 1.491505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.47, "volume": 48862, "typical_volume": 35992.2, "trend": 1.525667, "fair_value": 1.432295, "relative_strength": -16.691914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.903192, "energy": 39.01796, "activity_lines": [ 1.434, 1.447818, 1.464762, 1.487699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.54, "volume": 25696, "typical_volume": 35269.8, "trend": 1.522667, "fair_value": 1.435914, "relative_strength": -9.123574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.604799, "energy": 12.866298, "activity_lines": [ 1.467333, 1.463273, 1.470381, 1.488624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }