{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01ff86ce-e0ad-4c69-b966-8418645269d5", "symbol": "BCIC", "name": "BCP Investment Corp.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.418, "architecture_energy": 28.106, "architecture_maturity": 99.704, "architecture_confidence": 80.178, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.75, "rotation_up": 26.88, "upward_expansion": 15.4, "deceleration": 46.88, "rotation_down": 30.16, "downward_expansion": 60.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.28412, 7.231603, 7.32514, 7.607235 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.5, "trend_reference": 8.324809, "distance_from_trend": -0.099078, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.657234, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.356623, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.386753, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.335655, "excess_performance": -0.523109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099078, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144588, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.356623, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.313868, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030776, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.335655, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.7148, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 421755, "relative_activity": 1.079742, "balance": 0.7148, "dry_up": 0.672434, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055772, "annualized_volatility": 0.379843, "from_high_reference": -0.396248, "from_low_reference": 0.132962 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.324809, "fair_value_reference": 11.657234, "structural_low": 6.619814, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.010268, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.001748, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.118838, "worst_return": -0.144448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.065189, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.029341, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.172046, "worst_return": -0.267945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017193, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.097103, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.2604, "worst_return": -0.246287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029586, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025215, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030399, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.075894, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077886, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", 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"activity_lines": [ 7.16253, 7.184765, 7.332212, 7.756618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.2, "volume": 220993, "typical_volume": 413031.25, "trend": 8.444031, "fair_value": 11.69369, "relative_strength": -31.48201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.053484, "energy": 36.427049, "activity_lines": [ 7.182455, 7.178862, 7.312975, 7.668141 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.5, "volume": 421755, "typical_volume": 390607.3, "trend": 8.324809, "fair_value": 11.657234, "relative_strength": -31.386753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.418123, "energy": 28.105992, "activity_lines": [ 7.28412, 7.231603, 7.32514, 7.607235 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }