{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02014009-5de0-4b70-a88f-2d9c0705c0b8", "symbol": "IDEF-B", "name": "Manulife Smart International Defensive Equity ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.353, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.089, "architecture_energy": 92.839, "architecture_maturity": 23.125, "architecture_confidence": 67.974, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.96, "rotation_up": 81.38, "upward_expansion": 93.97, "deceleration": 45.47, "rotation_down": 10.06, "downward_expansion": 20.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.863333, 15.718702, 15.516432, 15.387535 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.139999, "trend_reference": 15.168278, "distance_from_trend": 0.064063, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.498342, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291371, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.438837, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120833, "excess_performance": 0.000412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064063, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029373, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.291371, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059443, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041351, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120833, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.6425, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1100, "relative_activity": 1.945525, "balance": 11.6425, "dry_up": 0.840555, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011119, "annualized_volatility": 0.172292, "from_high_reference": -0.000619, "from_low_reference": 0.201378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.168278, "fair_value_reference": 12.498342, "structural_low": 14.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.013017, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.010789, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.053615, "worst_return": -0.050116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.036877, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.027934, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.117554, "worst_return": -0.002558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.079178, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026801, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.118461, "worst_return": 0.071603, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 1611.6, "trend": 15.014777, "fair_value": 12.392405, "relative_strength": -3.264708, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.747223, "energy": 84.842551, "activity_lines": [ 15.616103, 15.480376, 15.352789, 15.230503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1366.55, "trend": 15.060944, "fair_value": 12.425965, "relative_strength": -3.359132, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.314329, "energy": 86.743801, "activity_lines": [ 15.622049, 15.519437, 15.384749, 15.268259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.88, "volume": 701, "typical_volume": 651.6, "trend": 15.110278, "fair_value": 12.46132, "relative_strength": -1.031706, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.39208, "energy": 93.414067, "activity_lines": [ 15.714, 15.600413, 15.440471, 15.321102 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.139999, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 565.4, "trend": 15.168278, "fair_value": 12.498342, "relative_strength": -2.438837, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.089267, "energy": 92.838585, "activity_lines": [ 15.863333, 15.718702, 15.516432, 15.387535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }