{ "ticker": { "uuid": "020327e7-9ab5-4de1-93f2-5fbb7833421a", "symbol": "GMF", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P EMERGING ASIA PACIFIC ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.608, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.535, "architecture_energy": 22.054, "architecture_maturity": 44.428, "architecture_confidence": 82.462, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.7, "rotation_up": 30.91, "upward_expansion": 56.37, "deceleration": 87.29, "rotation_down": 26.55, "downward_expansion": 17.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 152.932033, 153.251476, 152.570889, 150.393864 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 156.5462, "trend_reference": 148.094501, "distance_from_trend": 0.05707, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 119.731436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.307478, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.619938, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.073484, "excess_performance": -0.052141, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05707, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033576, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.307478, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038062, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026199, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036661, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073484, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.592305, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70526, "relative_activity": 1.725046, "balance": 1.592305, "dry_up": 1.293998, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036776, "annualized_volatility": 0.20014, "from_high_reference": -0.030013, "from_low_reference": 0.222449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 148.094501, "fair_value_reference": 119.731436, "structural_low": 131.89, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.010514, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.007738, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.104776, "worst_return": -0.054158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.031363, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.013414, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.184016, "worst_return": -0.020963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.074585, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.012141, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167023, "worst_return": 0.001239, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.514735, "energy": 66.710901, "activity_lines": [ 155.319914, 153.613727, 149.347653, 147.524315 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 152.6383, "volume": 30313, "typical_volume": 48787.55, "trend": 145.537317, "fair_value": 117.55022, "relative_strength": 0.645757, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.933025, "energy": 43.844542, "activity_lines": [ 154.80284, 153.669459, 149.881006, 148.013298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 153.69, "volume": 20375, "typical_volume": 45750.0, "trend": 146.022535, "fair_value": 117.934558, "relative_strength": -0.825996, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.193017, "energy": 42.239133, "activity_lines": [ 154.531713, 153.849475, 150.482101, 148.539278 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 155.84, "volume": 32445, "typical_volume": 46122.6, "trend": 146.635599, "fair_value": 118.311399, "relative_strength": -0.816687, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.673526, "energy": 43.601369, "activity_lines": [ 155.044546, 154.338544, 151.258816, 149.172662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 149.4423, "volume": 64999, "typical_volume": 47686.1, "trend": 147.009434, "fair_value": 118.657868, "relative_strength": -3.346735, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.457634, "energy": 23.082368, "activity_lines": [ 153.103931, 153.555421, 151.39632, 149.35374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 149.6611, "volume": 51371, "typical_volume": 49047.55, "trend": 147.328578, "fair_value": 118.980072, "relative_strength": -2.606219, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.419094, "energy": 18.534335, "activity_lines": [ 151.5742, 152.904913, 151.551033, 149.524815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 151.8854, "volume": 24717, "typical_volume": 48625.55, "trend": 147.632758, "fair_value": 119.33346, "relative_strength": -2.212814, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.084727, "energy": 17.436035, "activity_lines": [ 151.45122, 152.661907, 151.869055, 149.818804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 156.5462, "volume": 70526, "typical_volume": 40883.55, "trend": 148.094501, "fair_value": 119.731436, "relative_strength": -2.619938, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.535109, "energy": 22.053508, "activity_lines": [ 152.932033, 153.251476, 152.570889, 150.393864 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }