{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0209da1a-b0f9-4d2e-ab5c-152a20ca17f2", "symbol": "603863", "name": "GuangDong SongYang Recycle Resources CO.,LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.776, "architecture_energy": 74.501, "architecture_maturity": 53.318, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 21.65, "upward_expansion": 16.64, "deceleration": 42.17, "rotation_down": 62.56, "downward_expansion": 89.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.316667, 12.763636, 14.407476, 15.683032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.63, "trend_reference": 17.241333, "distance_from_trend": -0.267458, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.189936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.455367, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.515686, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.414193, "excess_performance": -0.370989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.267458, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1143, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.455367, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.304144, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.315157, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30315, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.414193, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.486838, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27460110, "relative_activity": 0.93877, "balance": 0.486838, "dry_up": 0.821727, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108533, "annualized_volatility": 0.442302, "from_high_reference": -0.494396, "from_low_reference": 0.188147 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.241333, "fair_value_reference": 23.189936, "structural_low": 10.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.008235, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.005817, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.239142, "worst_return": -0.187426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.055546, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.058028, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.390337, "worst_return": -0.309392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.098492, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.04323, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.61802, "worst_return": 0.066471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -75.934251, "energy": 89.041788, "activity_lines": [ 13.482667, 14.542727, 16.168571, 17.170215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.71, "volume": 23697900, "typical_volume": 31828495.65, "trend": 18.067, "fair_value": 23.345513, "relative_strength": -34.696077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.604321, "energy": 92.787908, "activity_lines": [ 12.766, 13.823818, 15.627714, 16.743634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.73, "volume": 23654007, "typical_volume": 30753341.3, "trend": 17.747, "fair_value": 23.288205, "relative_strength": -35.092134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.092169, "energy": 89.49596, "activity_lines": [ 12.310667, 13.259091, 15.128238, 16.334796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.5, "volume": 21333893, "typical_volume": 29561178.45, "trend": 17.485333, "fair_value": 23.240192, "relative_strength": -30.850583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.325122, "energy": 81.909641, "activity_lines": [ 12.275333, 12.956545, 14.742095, 15.99628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.63, "volume": 27460110, "typical_volume": 29251158.95, "trend": 17.241333, "fair_value": 23.189936, "relative_strength": -31.515686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.775664, "energy": 74.501271, "activity_lines": [ 12.316667, 12.763636, 14.407476, 15.683032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }