{ "ticker": { "uuid": "020ad576-4a33-40ce-afbf-42b8c0d6e469", "symbol": "WTEC", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.749, "architecture_energy": 42.053, "architecture_maturity": 69.206, "architecture_confidence": 95.641, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.46, "rotation_up": 39.07, "upward_expansion": 65.65, "deceleration": 94.16, "rotation_down": 29.03, "downward_expansion": 14.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 261.861338, 261.505639, 258.530026, 248.859302 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 274.100006, "trend_reference": 237.133668, "distance_from_trend": 0.155888, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 181.395193, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.511065, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.967373, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.287731, "excess_performance": 0.236496, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.155888, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063966, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.511065, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018201, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.109674, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026386, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.287731, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.199801, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20074, "relative_activity": 0.833098, "balance": 3.199801, "dry_up": 0.879683, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043267, "annualized_volatility": 0.240612, "from_high_reference": -0.00349, "from_low_reference": 0.419766 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 237.133668, "fair_value_reference": 181.395193, "structural_low": 193.059998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.000743, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.021527, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.120356, "worst_return": -0.112741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.078387, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.040734, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152043, "worst_return": -0.144983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.193219, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.120693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.26611, "worst_return": -0.037286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075726, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.099875, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019735, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016159, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01393, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", 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53.472061, "activity_lines": [ 262.402665, 262.661454, 249.211953, 239.903237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 264.809998, "volume": 91603, "typical_volume": 28587.35, "trend": 231.888166, "fair_value": 177.847308, "relative_strength": 12.092036, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.519053, "energy": 51.744172, "activity_lines": [ 262.881332, 263.531909, 251.9155, 242.126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 254.580002, "volume": 23042, "typical_volume": 28255.2, "trend": 233.088833, "fair_value": 178.685032, "relative_strength": 6.547555, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.047646, "energy": 39.229005, "activity_lines": [ 260.032, 262.063818, 253.401572, 243.589989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 257.670013, "volume": 11537, "typical_volume": 26401.1, "trend": 234.272167, "fair_value": 179.536923, "relative_strength": 6.293005, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.007382, "energy": 36.700002, "activity_lines": [ 258.762671, 261.128457, 254.97493, 245.175872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 252.610001, "volume": 30133, "typical_volume": 24895.8, "trend": 235.344667, "fair_value": 180.380834, "relative_strength": 2.809733, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.012647, "energy": 26.796007, "activity_lines": [ 256.606004, 259.279275, 255.838859, 246.358958 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 274.100006, "volume": 20074, "typical_volume": 24095.6, "trend": 237.133668, "fair_value": 181.395193, "relative_strength": 10.967373, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.749245, "energy": 42.053193, "activity_lines": [ 261.861338, 261.505639, 258.530026, 248.859302 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }