{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02130de6-22e2-49cc-90ae-e2bfbc1c4948", "symbol": "ECOR", "name": "Electrocore LLC", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.16, "architecture_energy": 12.562, "architecture_maturity": 26.132, "architecture_confidence": 55.895, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.6, "rotation_up": 21.72, "upward_expansion": 18.38, "deceleration": 61.77, "rotation_down": 51.99, "downward_expansion": 41.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.781, 7.193091, 7.386405, 7.194355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.09, "trend_reference": 6.974333, "distance_from_trend": 0.159967, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.263268, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113824, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.871764, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.484404, "excess_performance": 0.29695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.159967, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144115, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113824, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.200847, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.158718, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.226893, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.484404, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.086912, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 785538, "relative_activity": 1.65948, "balance": 1.086912, "dry_up": 0.808597, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.237843, "annualized_volatility": 1.047541, "from_high_reference": -0.229157, "from_low_reference": 0.944712 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.974333, "fair_value_reference": 7.263268, "structural_low": 5.15, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.006418, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009868, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.512748, "worst_return": -0.355074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.050025, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.08071, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.186404, "worst_return": -0.255539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016248, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.141736, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.694761, "worst_return": -0.494885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.013091, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.19957, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.403509, "worst_return": -0.357335, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.300885, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.799387, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.296729, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.317578, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073543, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097928, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"trend": 6.757167, "fair_value": 7.213044, "relative_strength": -7.618322, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.05462, "energy": 14.798962, "activity_lines": [ 7.911667, 8.175909, 7.610048, 7.261806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.88, "volume": 297320, "typical_volume": 463168.05, "trend": 6.799833, "fair_value": 7.221826, "relative_strength": -13.288806, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.20697, "energy": 15.589343, "activity_lines": [ 7.079667, 7.795727, 7.481548, 7.205215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.19, "volume": 238998, "typical_volume": 459071.85, "trend": 6.841167, "fair_value": 7.233364, "relative_strength": -6.371031, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.668183, "energy": 18.564927, "activity_lines": [ 6.642333, 7.481545, 7.390667, 7.165871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.085, "volume": 209187, "typical_volume": 459923.1, "trend": 6.892333, "fair_value": 7.242883, "relative_strength": -7.834303, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.47545, "energy": 27.319783, "activity_lines": [ 6.319, 7.149727, 7.292929, 7.117086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.09, "volume": 785538, "typical_volume": 473363.9, "trend": 6.974333, "fair_value": 7.263268, "relative_strength": 15.871764, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.159756, "energy": 12.561554, "activity_lines": [ 6.781, 7.193091, 7.386405, 7.194355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }