{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "02196d61-fc09-46d2-84ba-45700029c1b5",
    "symbol": "ASML34",
    "name": "ASML Holding N.V.",
    "exchange": "SAO",
    "country": "BR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^BVSP",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 34.51,
    "architecture_energy": 22.485,
    "architecture_maturity": 68.226,
    "architecture_confidence": 90.333,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.96,
        "rotation_up": 23.46,
        "upward_expansion": 55.84,
        "deceleration": 91.1,
        "rotation_down": 29.8,
        "downward_expansion": 19.51
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        159.098439,
        163.365651,
        157.948639,
        151.487212
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 161.0,
    "trend_reference": 144.352013,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.115329,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 91.759337,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.75459,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 26.984857,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.201547,
    "excess_performance": 0.258596,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.115329,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.159962,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.75459,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.06575,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.269849,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.075991,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.201547,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.608468,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 202980,
      "relative_activity": 2.452282,
      "balance": 0.608468,
      "dry_up": 1.580213,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.089235,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.365393,
      "from_high_reference": -0.154856,
      "from_low_reference": 1.269914
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 144.352013,
      "fair_value_reference": 91.759337,
      "structural_low": 119.245613,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.064391,
        "positive_rate": 0.888889,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.888889,
        "median_excess_return": 0.091375,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.155403,
        "worst_return": -0.088397,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.064549,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.056914,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.444745,
        "worst_return": -0.140578,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.137966,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.164578,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.093191,
        "worst_return": -0.349199,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.185851,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.250762,
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        "best_return": 0.105326,
        "worst_return": -0.518853,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-01-05",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
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        "return": 0.309295,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.064016,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      },
      {
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        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.04806,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.041774,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.134522,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.16831,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 79946.2,
        "trend": 121.428977,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 86771.4,
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        "relative_strength": 28.904712,
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 88922.9,
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": 37.878923,
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 171.969727,
        "volume": 18828,
        "typical_volume": 66576.05,
        "trend": 136.099947,
        "fair_value": 88.52563,
        "relative_strength": 41.137513,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 71260.65,
        "trend": 138.203074,
        "fair_value": 89.196593,
        "relative_strength": 34.550243,
        "stage": 2,
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        "energy": 71.073584,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 162.39978,
        "volume": 129867,
        "typical_volume": 72914.0,
        "trend": 140.073803,
        "fair_value": 89.860331,
        "relative_strength": 31.022009,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.042092,
        "energy": 49.536879,
        "activity_lines": [
          168.130479,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 160.851395,
        "volume": 78350,
        "typical_volume": 73152.5,
        "trend": 141.878297,
        "fair_value": 90.504615,
        "relative_strength": 28.211222,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.272456,
        "energy": 37.285841,
        "activity_lines": [
          164.855863,
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          156.404874,
          149.727691
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 151.28,
        "volume": 111992,
        "typical_volume": 75593.4,
        "trend": 143.129122,
        "fair_value": 91.098592,
        "relative_strength": 16.891711,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.475863,
        "energy": 21.896661,
        "activity_lines": [
          159.798688,
          163.895789,
          156.764601,
          150.334252
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 161.0,
        "volume": 202980,
        "typical_volume": 82771.9,
        "trend": 144.352013,
        "fair_value": 91.759337,
        "relative_strength": 26.984857,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.509866,
        "energy": 22.485091,
        "activity_lines": [
          159.098439,
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          151.487212
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}