{ "ticker": { "uuid": "022550a6-ab24-4e99-a3a6-d45272a27979", "symbol": "SQBP", "name": "Global X S&P 500 Quarterly Buffer UCITS ETF A USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.022, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.398, "architecture_energy": 44.428, "architecture_maturity": 60.524, "architecture_confidence": 73.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.23, "rotation_up": 40.75, "upward_expansion": 65.85, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.34, "downward_expansion": 18.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.2394, 17.246854, 17.146804, 16.97983 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.396, "trend_reference": 16.7521, "distance_from_trend": 0.038437, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.15984, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.147506, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.498107, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.07802, "excess_performance": 0.026784, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038437, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018902, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.147506, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016614, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024981, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01286, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07802, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.012293, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.012293, "dry_up": 0.324847, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010891, "annualized_volatility": 0.068655, "from_high_reference": -0.001836, "from_low_reference": 0.123918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.7521, "fair_value_reference": 15.15984, "structural_low": 16.032, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.009443, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.036817, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.020874, "worst_return": -0.013794, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.021109, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.02765, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.021109, "worst_return": 0.021109, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.063696, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.009452, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.063696, "worst_return": 0.063696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056725, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0302, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014297, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031944, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003152, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045297, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018948, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.052805, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 17.235267, 17.222691, 17.047447, 16.872058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.246, "volume": 69, "typical_volume": 1230.65, "trend": 16.689267, "fair_value": 15.106615, "relative_strength": -2.142846, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.8007, "energy": 49.765932, "activity_lines": [ 17.223133, 17.232382, 17.084071, 16.909978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.094999, "volume": 501, "typical_volume": 1255.7, "trend": 16.719033, "fair_value": 15.132378, "relative_strength": -4.018111, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.942633, "energy": 36.78508, "activity_lines": [ 17.17, 17.212763, 17.102804, 16.936155 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.396, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1209.8, "trend": 16.7521, "fair_value": 15.15984, "relative_strength": -2.498107, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.397883, "energy": 44.427984, "activity_lines": [ 17.2394, 17.246854, 17.146804, 16.97983 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }