{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "022702e2-0642-4ccb-bc92-894ac69e16ea",
    "symbol": "IKA",
    "name": "Ilika plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -70.928,
    "architecture_energy": 63.353,
    "architecture_maturity": 18.529,
    "architecture_confidence": 85.825,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.17,
        "rotation_up": 11.12,
        "upward_expansion": 12.59,
        "deceleration": 38.93,
        "rotation_down": 71.3,
        "downward_expansion": 88.26
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.270833,
        0.280727,
        0.300738,
        0.30128
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 0.2575,
    "trend_reference": 0.305317,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.156613,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.328373,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21583,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -33.147855,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.207692,
    "excess_performance": -0.258928,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.156613,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.113997,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.21583,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.309786,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.331479,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.261247,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.207692,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.525576,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2536335,
      "relative_activity": 2.153676,
      "balance": 0.525576,
      "dry_up": 1.106123,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.123824,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.502816,
      "from_high_reference": -0.495098,
      "from_low_reference": 0.072917
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.305317,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.328373,
      "structural_low": 0.24,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 35,
        "median_return": -0.030405,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.032567,
        "regime_survival": 0.828571,
        "best_return": 1.474227,
        "worst_return": -0.455319,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": -0.042254,
        "positive_rate": 0.384615,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.615385,
        "median_excess_return": -0.062782,
        "regime_survival": 0.615385,
        "best_return": 0.692308,
        "worst_return": -0.527273,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.175439,
        "positive_rate": 0.285714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.222132,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.425532,
        "worst_return": -0.375587,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.271911,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.328566,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.761702,
        "worst_return": -0.667967,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.139535,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.104478,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "return": 0.208955,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": 0.019108,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2026-01-02",
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        "return": -0.085366,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.027027,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": 0.073529,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "stage": 1,
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 822256,
        "typical_volume": 1126742.4,
        "trend": 0.31565,
        "fair_value": 0.332347,
        "relative_strength": -26.503507,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -47.716223,
        "energy": 44.70956,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.286067,
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          0.310921,
          0.309502
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.2875,
        "volume": 402558,
        "typical_volume": 1072386.55,
        "trend": 0.312733,
        "fair_value": 0.331241,
        "relative_strength": -25.917918,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -48.167833,
        "energy": 49.58046,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.285267,
          0.297527,
          0.30909,
          0.307686
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.265,
        "volume": 1449476,
        "typical_volume": 1108639.6,
        "trend": 0.309067,
        "fair_value": 0.329831,
        "relative_strength": -31.707521,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -58.141133,
        "energy": 52.066535,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.278467,
          0.289127,
          0.3052,
          0.304606
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.2575,
        "volume": 2536335,
        "typical_volume": 1177677.25,
        "trend": 0.305317,
        "fair_value": 0.328373,
        "relative_strength": -33.147855,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -70.927841,
        "energy": 63.352688,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.270833,
          0.280727,
          0.300738,
          0.30128
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}