{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02285b88-efd4-4efc-9f36-1f0d28dd020e", "symbol": "MODIRUBBER", "name": "Modi Rubber Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.923, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.028, "architecture_energy": 15.63, "architecture_maturity": 32.013, "architecture_confidence": 64.816, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.59, "rotation_up": 21.88, "upward_expansion": 39.03, "deceleration": 72.0, "rotation_down": 34.42, "downward_expansion": 37.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 125.054, 126.725818, 128.284666, 126.56486 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 126.080002, "trend_reference": 124.452333, "distance_from_trend": 0.013079, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 111.232115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.133486, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.389644, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014402, "excess_performance": 0.058111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013079, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017338, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.133486, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033896, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175065, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014402, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.321982, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7124, "relative_activity": 0.303025, "balance": 0.321982, "dry_up": 0.368073, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072067, "annualized_volatility": 0.288831, "from_high_reference": -0.247284, "from_low_reference": 0.281171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 124.452333, "fair_value_reference": 111.232115, "structural_low": 105.010002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.001566, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.007276, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.14809, "worst_return": -0.120089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.034589, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.034216, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.456916, "worst_return": -0.099927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.131832, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.134666, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.23657, "worst_return": -0.314899, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 128.187999, 130.001273, 127.332809, 125.797011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 132.619995, "volume": 3289, "typical_volume": 27778.1, "trend": 124.885667, "fair_value": 109.425256, "relative_strength": 10.610194, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.221072, "energy": 17.265329, "activity_lines": [ 129.567331, 130.205635, 128.119714, 126.35486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 130.210007, "volume": 8834, "typical_volume": 25796.0, "trend": 125.785, "fair_value": 109.825641, "relative_strength": 8.763294, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.299803, "energy": 21.898679, "activity_lines": [ 130.217334, 129.906728, 128.641095, 126.698366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 127.129997, "volume": 5808, "typical_volume": 24793.2, "trend": 126.539, "fair_value": 110.179038, "relative_strength": 5.592657, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.453409, "energy": 21.791602, "activity_lines": [ 129.543333, 129.169091, 128.837571, 126.78514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 125.860001, "volume": 7122, "typical_volume": 24210.75, "trend": 125.166, "fair_value": 110.548654, "relative_strength": 6.846869, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.66398, "energy": 9.392318, "activity_lines": [ 128.333333, 128.486545, 128.865428, 126.741333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 120.839996, "volume": 14559, "typical_volume": 24099.9, "trend": 124.489333, "fair_value": 110.861731, "relative_strength": -0.052179, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.187548, "energy": 8.756452, "activity_lines": [ 125.471332, 127.057999, 128.342428, 126.462236 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 126.080002, "volume": 7124, "typical_volume": 23509.6, "trend": 124.452333, "fair_value": 111.232115, "relative_strength": 3.389644, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.027903, "energy": 15.63029, "activity_lines": [ 125.054, 126.725818, 128.284666, 126.56486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }