{ "ticker": { "uuid": "022c7aa6-8009-4fd7-bbc4-e03016cb72b9", "symbol": "000826", "name": "TUS Environmental Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.728, "architecture_energy": 61.645, "architecture_maturity": 24.21, "architecture_confidence": 80.306, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.7, "rotation_up": 11.45, "upward_expansion": 11.84, "deceleration": 41.13, "rotation_down": 68.83, "downward_expansion": 85.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.646667, 1.723636, 1.88319, 1.971398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.76, "trend_reference": 2.077, "distance_from_trend": -0.152624, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.258974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.220885, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.079525, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.128713, "excess_performance": -0.136113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152624, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075656, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.220885, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107055, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210795, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008079, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128713, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.298723, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 202595052, "relative_activity": 1.242461, "balance": 1.298723, "dry_up": 1.051122, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157343, "annualized_volatility": 0.764857, "from_high_reference": -0.422951, "from_low_reference": 0.364341 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.077, "fair_value_reference": 2.258974, "structural_low": 1.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.015982, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": 0.030297, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.478788, "worst_return": -0.349835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.003077, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.00414, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.525547, "worst_return": -0.328431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.049351, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.003128, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.394161, "worst_return": -0.547855, "sufficient": true }, { 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2.164333, "fair_value": 2.292115, "relative_strength": -22.339863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.745675, "energy": 64.2412, "activity_lines": [ 1.884, 2.011818, 2.059762, 2.110516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.48, "volume": 142572846, "typical_volume": 207333663.35, "trend": 2.140667, "fair_value": 2.28359, "relative_strength": -32.194041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.505369, "energy": 81.125477, "activity_lines": [ 1.732667, 1.900182, 1.99719, 2.066366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.38, "volume": 145352852, "typical_volume": 175695096.45, "trend": 2.109, "fair_value": 2.274295, "relative_strength": -36.498867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.98031, "energy": 84.809072, "activity_lines": [ 1.59, 1.781273, 1.931429, 2.01729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.73, "volume": 195060982, "typical_volume": 167209740.3, "trend": 2.092333, "fair_value": 2.267051, "relative_strength": -18.760784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.167709, "energy": 71.443408, "activity_lines": [ 1.613333, 1.744909, 1.904381, 1.992839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.76, "volume": 202595052, "typical_volume": 163059495.1, "trend": 2.077, "fair_value": 2.258974, "relative_strength": -21.079525, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.728017, "energy": 61.645449, "activity_lines": [ 1.646667, 1.723636, 1.88319, 1.971398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }