{ "ticker": { "uuid": "022fb0ab-bd31-4fdb-bf1d-850e075b2e6b", "symbol": "AAL", "name": "American Airlines Group", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.896, "architecture_energy": 25.66, "architecture_maturity": 69.801, "architecture_confidence": 88.377, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.11, "rotation_up": 26.92, "upward_expansion": 58.65, "deceleration": 88.25, "rotation_down": 30.79, "downward_expansion": 19.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.407667, 15.849091, 15.057286, 14.297892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.94, "trend_reference": 13.741167, "distance_from_trend": 0.160018, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.208622, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.206788, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.485598, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.045932, "excess_performance": -0.141522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.160018, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030201, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.206788, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20281, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024856, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149307, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045932, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.540274, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 256439139, "relative_activity": 0.590138, "balance": 1.540274, "dry_up": 1.155617, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106602, "annualized_volatility": 0.567342, "from_high_reference": -0.151676, "from_low_reference": 0.579782 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.741167, "fair_value_reference": 13.208622, "structural_low": 10.09, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.085122, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.059115, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.096169, "worst_return": -0.319349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.081634, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.161468, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.178827, "worst_return": -0.257358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.062498, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.196217, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.045932, "worst_return": -0.175329, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.13087, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.254978, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.001431, "worst_return": -0.331259, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.192389, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045338, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083133, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034405, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.184896, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04232, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.266404, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.23155, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.189277, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.255556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019359, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.04, "volume": 106760439, "typical_volume": 119414890.55, "trend": 15.505667, "fair_value": 16.781218, "relative_strength": -12.112712, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.409891, "energy": 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"relative_strength": 8.98708, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.577686, "energy": 82.362545, "activity_lines": [ 17.133333, 16.020545, 14.419524, 13.937785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.98, "volume": 840528738, "typical_volume": 447767030.1, "trend": 13.782, "fair_value": 13.225256, "relative_strength": 0.575478, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.956977, "energy": 69.957494, "activity_lines": [ 16.546, 15.992182, 14.58181, 14.013355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.475, "volume": 571024262, "typical_volume": 452345763.3, "trend": 13.749833, "fair_value": 13.210417, "relative_strength": -1.30721, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.517858, "energy": 36.895198, "activity_lines": [ 15.790333, 15.842364, 14.686905, 14.058065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.27, "volume": 340661473, "typical_volume": 439789986.8, "trend": 13.742833, "fair_value": 13.206763, "relative_strength": 3.339551, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.42286, "energy": 22.675434, "activity_lines": [ 15.400667, 15.797727, 14.852024, 14.15614 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.94, "volume": 256439139, "typical_volume": 434541258.05, "trend": 13.741167, "fair_value": 13.208622, "relative_strength": 2.485598, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.895693, "energy": 25.659604, "activity_lines": [ 15.407667, 15.849091, 15.057286, 14.297892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }