{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0237b9fe-9655-4740-af99-0c3c5ddf6578", "symbol": "GTN", "name": "Gray Television Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.376, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.526, "architecture_energy": 25.108, "architecture_maturity": 32.839, "architecture_confidence": 62.44, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.64, "rotation_up": 55.83, "upward_expansion": 19.99, "deceleration": 42.06, "rotation_down": 15.03, "downward_expansion": 31.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.439333, 4.197558, 4.221803, 4.339646 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.37, "trend_reference": 4.433944, "distance_from_trend": 0.211111, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.769303, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.125951, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.75804, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.282251, "excess_performance": 0.156626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.211111, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039078, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.125951, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.277662, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02758, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.215326, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.282251, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.820806, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9957939, "relative_activity": 1.56703, "balance": 0.820806, "dry_up": 1.021407, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092441, "annualized_volatility": 0.696731, "from_high_reference": -0.147933, "from_low_reference": 0.511612 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.433944, "fair_value_reference": 4.769303, "structural_low": 3.5525, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.170852, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.160611, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.056248, "worst_return": -0.25619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.252572, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.22892, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068261, "worst_return": -0.310992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.204535, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.209301, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.094442, "worst_return": -0.362254, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 3.96, "volume": 5325253, "typical_volume": 6404730.15, "trend": 4.416482, "fair_value": 4.811779, "relative_strength": -20.82654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.109788, "energy": 27.597729, "activity_lines": [ 3.933333, 3.908716, 4.153891, 4.301168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.04, "volume": 5073248, "typical_volume": 6226137.3, "trend": 4.397109, "fair_value": 4.782154, "relative_strength": -19.790635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.218961, "energy": 25.276894, "activity_lines": [ 3.972667, 3.932718, 4.123336, 4.276879 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.37, "volume": 9957939, "typical_volume": 6354658.7, "trend": 4.433944, "fair_value": 4.769303, "relative_strength": 2.75804, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.525932, "energy": 25.108471, "activity_lines": [ 4.439333, 4.197558, 4.221803, 4.339646 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }