{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02382d74-ed96-4ffa-b75d-631a7e5f9749", "symbol": "WTI2S", "name": "SG ETC Daily Short -2X WTI Oil Future", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.66, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.678, "architecture_energy": 51.162, "architecture_maturity": 87.821, "architecture_confidence": 65.78, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.72, "rotation_up": 16.89, "upward_expansion": 13.65, "deceleration": 64.73, "rotation_down": 59.81, "downward_expansion": 72.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.492, 2.754191, 2.688002, 3.327894 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.596, "trend_reference": 4.908833, "distance_from_trend": -0.471157, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.44691, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.806944, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -73.518059, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.728025, "excess_performance": -0.907918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.471157, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.398405, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.806944, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059697, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.735181, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096262, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.728025, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.646808, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 750059, "relative_activity": 2.053893, "balance": 3.646808, "dry_up": 1.566299, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.229492, "annualized_volatility": 1.480499, "from_high_reference": -0.809733, "from_low_reference": 0.395699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.908833, "fair_value_reference": 13.44691, "structural_low": 1.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.023435, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.515425, "worst_return": -0.653487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025842, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.014803, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.264183, "worst_return": -0.784861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.058675, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.200124, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.10044, "worst_return": -0.728025, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 13.682073, "relative_strength": -77.959442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.151281, "energy": 39.008572, "activity_lines": [ 2.8966, 2.876809, 2.76739, 3.715245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.2185, "volume": 974075, "typical_volume": 333636.35, "trend": 5.238233, "fair_value": 13.563282, "relative_strength": -77.226476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.415904, "energy": 54.366295, "activity_lines": [ 2.5989, 2.782936, 2.703436, 3.49836 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.596, "volume": 750059, "typical_volume": 365189.0, "trend": 4.908833, "fair_value": 13.44691, "relative_strength": -73.518059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.678457, "energy": 51.162186, "activity_lines": [ 2.492, 2.754191, 2.688002, 3.327894 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }