{ "ticker": { "uuid": "023f97d9-5d8a-4014-ba21-1e0911bf5bfb", "symbol": "BILD", "name": "NOMURA GLOBAL LISTED INFRASTRUCTURE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.111, "architecture_energy": 14.288, "architecture_maturity": 14.145, "architecture_confidence": 57.657, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.83, "rotation_up": 52.17, "upward_expansion": 40.94, "deceleration": 31.36, "rotation_down": 17.34, "downward_expansion": 13.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.02536, 29.928736, 29.852515, 29.970381 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.8575, "trend_reference": 30.00842, "distance_from_trend": -0.005029, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.99539, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.148569, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.396615, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005583, "excess_performance": -0.120042, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005029, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020435, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.148569, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007979, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083966, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019134, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005583, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.181165, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1007, "relative_activity": 0.384836, "balance": 3.181165, "dry_up": 0.156304, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019646, "annualized_volatility": 0.142946, "from_high_reference": -0.057118, "from_low_reference": 0.119094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.00842, "fair_value_reference": 25.99539, "structural_low": 28.44, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.008812, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005791, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.008812, "worst_return": 0.008812, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.05936, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008414, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065065, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038482, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", 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"trend": 29.742662, "fair_value": 25.876709, "relative_strength": -6.315146, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.576861, "energy": 5.11825, "activity_lines": [ 29.772919, 29.654351, 29.833532, 29.916995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.1204, "volume": 418, "typical_volume": 3168.3, "trend": 29.823439, "fair_value": 25.907461, "relative_strength": -4.231439, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.746828, "energy": 13.417965, "activity_lines": [ 29.918135, 29.751995, 29.83644, 29.941365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.1549, "volume": 132, "typical_volume": 3127.55, "trend": 29.893363, "fair_value": 25.938018, "relative_strength": -3.488205, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.971117, "energy": 17.328708, "activity_lines": [ 30.043053, 29.846935, 29.849977, 29.962749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.108, "volume": 79, "typical_volume": 3050.45, "trend": 29.953854, "fair_value": 25.967803, "relative_strength": -4.55948, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.717757, "energy": 21.711871, "activity_lines": [ 30.085107, 29.912519, 29.862043, 29.976597 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.8575, "volume": 1007, "typical_volume": 2616.7, "trend": 30.00842, "fair_value": 25.99539, "relative_strength": -8.396615, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.111295, "energy": 14.287934, "activity_lines": [ 30.02536, 29.928736, 29.852515, 29.970381 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }