{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0240705b-81b3-43d1-b8b7-0d7555f97d1b", "symbol": "EWU", "name": "ISHARES TRUST MSCI UTD KINGDOM ETF NEW", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.868, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.248, "architecture_energy": 75.366, "architecture_maturity": 36.301, "architecture_confidence": 68.091, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.22, "rotation_up": 79.73, "upward_expansion": 93.92, "deceleration": 39.2, "rotation_down": 9.71, "downward_expansion": 15.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.934, 47.309641, 46.779895, 46.480465 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 48.64, "trend_reference": 46.158294, "distance_from_trend": 0.053765, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.507223, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.332339, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.668817, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.052053, "excess_performance": -0.073572, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053765, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033614, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.332339, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018036, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016688, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052053, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.209364, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9284299, "relative_activity": 1.252665, "balance": 1.209364, "dry_up": 0.752417, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02546, "annualized_volatility": 0.163534, "from_high_reference": -0.004503, "from_low_reference": 0.241177 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.158294, "fair_value_reference": 36.507223, "structural_low": 42.965527, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.009977, "positive_rate": 0.638889, "directional_follow_through": 0.638889, "median_excess_return": -0.001302, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.055274, "worst_return": -0.085897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.043231, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.015237, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.073134, "worst_return": -0.074963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.046079, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.07496, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.124611, "worst_return": -0.031922, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.6, "volume": 14092497, "typical_volume": 9193406.45, "trend": 45.601423, "fair_value": 36.031022, "relative_strength": -3.351117, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.799614, "energy": 26.898518, "activity_lines": [ 46.421981, 46.226859, 46.082232, 45.963146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.94, "volume": 4620292, "typical_volume": 8915660.8, "trend": 45.735384, "fair_value": 36.142089, "relative_strength": -1.152896, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.91341, "energy": 42.706306, "activity_lines": [ 46.637333, 46.382627, 46.179395, 46.049506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.23, "volume": 3452911, "typical_volume": 8284797.45, "trend": 45.856011, "fair_value": 36.255015, "relative_strength": -0.002004, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.880571, "energy": 55.184063, "activity_lines": [ 46.919333, 46.57469, 46.309169, 46.145932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.41, "volume": 4949089, "typical_volume": 7797882.5, "trend": 46.008741, "fair_value": 36.380809, "relative_strength": 1.324211, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.272756, "energy": 67.427378, "activity_lines": [ 47.476667, 46.939341, 46.542447, 46.310706 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.64, "volume": 9284299, "typical_volume": 7411640.35, "trend": 46.158294, "fair_value": 36.507223, "relative_strength": -1.668817, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.247535, "energy": 75.366049, "activity_lines": [ 47.934, 47.309641, 46.779895, 46.480465 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }