{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02411f82-ae13-4f88-9c9f-a3a62b2fa308", "symbol": "CDE", "name": "Coeur Mining Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.133, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.534, "architecture_energy": 37.878, "architecture_maturity": 28.315, "architecture_confidence": 91.012, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.81, "rotation_up": 19.65, "upward_expansion": 4.23, "deceleration": 51.17, "rotation_down": 53.45, "downward_expansion": 77.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.777333, 15.988, 16.775476, 17.681544 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.39, "trend_reference": 19.130827, "distance_from_trend": -0.090996, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.596203, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.812175, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.435735, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.187979, "excess_performance": -0.313604, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090996, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011894, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.812175, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.381279, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144357, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176547, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.187979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.272437, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 231836625, "relative_activity": 1.513296, "balance": 1.272437, "dry_up": 1.100014, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14104, "annualized_volatility": 0.651121, "from_high_reference": -0.373074, "from_low_reference": 0.594297 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.130827, "fair_value_reference": 9.596203, "structural_low": 13.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.02272, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 0.521657, "worst_return": -0.25072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.071996, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062984, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.682226, "worst_return": -0.478178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019355, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.061354, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.633752, "worst_return": -0.459725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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45.924365, "activity_lines": [ 16.625333, 17.003074, 17.749711, 18.701034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.35, "volume": 97825241, "typical_volume": 141336205.4, "trend": 19.452335, "fair_value": 9.345309, "relative_strength": -25.695806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.807191, "energy": 60.840235, "activity_lines": [ 15.808, 16.458364, 17.332184, 18.363508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.13, "volume": 187994360, "typical_volume": 145648378.3, "trend": 19.317727, "fair_value": 9.423343, "relative_strength": -21.529556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.217176, "energy": 53.494608, "activity_lines": [ 15.440667, 16.131636, 17.049748, 18.084648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.91, "volume": 156431440, "typical_volume": 148896154.65, "trend": 19.230389, "fair_value": 9.501248, "relative_strength": -23.837945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.125354, "energy": 57.591305, "activity_lines": [ 15.158667, 15.809636, 16.782, 17.800279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.39, "volume": 231836625, "typical_volume": 153199807.55, "trend": 19.130827, "fair_value": 9.596203, "relative_strength": -14.435735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.534152, "energy": 37.878162, "activity_lines": [ 15.777333, 15.988, 16.775476, 17.681544 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }