{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0242c527-be2d-4950-aa75-2e9acb6e11c6", "symbol": "BATRA", "name": "Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc. Series A Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.695, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.184, "architecture_energy": 20.318, "architecture_maturity": 56.548, "architecture_confidence": 79.496, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.55, "rotation_up": 27.77, "upward_expansion": 57.61, "deceleration": 88.14, "rotation_down": 27.11, "downward_expansion": 18.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.608, 55.213455, 54.703524, 53.310624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 53.46, "trend_reference": 51.068667, "distance_from_trend": 0.046826, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.441154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202939, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.425908, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.23123, "excess_performance": 0.043776, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046826, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087856, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202939, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063404, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024259, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011088, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.23123, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.882809, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 475663, "relative_activity": 1.59298, "balance": 0.882809, "dry_up": 1.131994, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049181, "annualized_volatility": 0.212219, "from_high_reference": -0.084119, "from_low_reference": 0.288193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.068667, "fair_value_reference": 44.441154, "structural_low": 43.04, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.018503, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.034646, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.132736, "worst_return": -0.055458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009922, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060556, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185468, "worst_return": -0.083907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031918, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.019116, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.208361, "worst_return": -0.097718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.173324, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.227645, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199713, "worst_return": 0.000233, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036594, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008325, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010259, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065418, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048409, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060052, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073546, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034854, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022279, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003053, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01363, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000839, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.182055, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 42.37, "volume": 459876, "typical_volume": 349064.75, "trend": 38.312333, "fair_value": 29.655897, "relative_strength": 3.797762, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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58.249026, "activity_lines": [ 56.164, 55.348727, 53.883857, 52.07729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.66, "volume": 351116, "typical_volume": 290388.85, "trend": 49.928333, "fair_value": 44.281731, "relative_strength": 6.989022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.257348, "energy": 61.058972, "activity_lines": [ 56.440667, 55.676545, 54.310333, 52.541441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.04, "volume": 240118, "typical_volume": 290777.95, "trend": 50.338667, "fair_value": 44.341603, "relative_strength": 5.802485, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.750917, "energy": 46.987764, "activity_lines": [ 56.052667, 55.677273, 54.543238, 52.871226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.41, "volume": 285154, "typical_volume": 291563.95, "trend": 50.720667, "fair_value": 44.394231, "relative_strength": 4.163398, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.823865, "energy": 30.958794, "activity_lines": [ 55.418667, 55.543636, 54.68481, 53.133892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.46, "volume": 475663, "typical_volume": 298599.55, "trend": 51.068667, "fair_value": 44.441154, "relative_strength": -2.425908, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.183615, "energy": 20.317772, "activity_lines": [ 54.608, 55.213455, 54.703524, 53.310624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }