{ "ticker": { "uuid": "024479c8-a756-41ec-9741-47ecabdfb853", "symbol": "LBOW", "name": "ICG-Longbow Senior Secured UK Property Debt Investments Ltd", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.098, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.923, "architecture_energy": 13.719, "architecture_maturity": 57.389, "architecture_confidence": 61.118, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.84, "rotation_up": 18.46, "upward_expansion": 6.69, "deceleration": 56.54, "rotation_down": 35.66, "downward_expansion": 58.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1266, 0.126482, 0.127564, 0.129227 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.129, "trend_reference": 0.131983, "distance_from_trend": -0.022604, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.148179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.129429, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.358452, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.101045, "excess_performance": -0.152281, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022604, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017128, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.129429, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000514, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143585, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010727, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101045, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.482979, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82799, "relative_activity": 0.647203, "balance": 0.482979, "dry_up": 1.523929, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168587, "annualized_volatility": 0.27091, "from_high_reference": -0.295082, "from_low_reference": 0.183486 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.131983, "fair_value_reference": 0.148179, "structural_low": 0.109, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.011154, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": -0.020618, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.117508, "worst_return": -0.197595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.031177, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.049535, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.147131, "worst_return": -0.291401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.122328, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.176817, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.112743, "worst_return": -0.242266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.152865, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.234642, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.029473, "worst_return": -0.366352, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-24", "end": "2023-03-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121018, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-04-07", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.075058, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141719, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.00673, "active": false 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-47.189647, "energy": 20.047307, "activity_lines": [ 0.1266, 0.127127, 0.129064, 0.130977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1195, "volume": 141492, "typical_volume": 107162.85, "trend": 0.132883, "fair_value": 0.149688, "relative_strength": -20.739303, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.593449, "energy": 24.526197, "activity_lines": [ 0.124233, 0.125573, 0.127998, 0.130108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1275, "volume": 379060, "typical_volume": 123243.7, "trend": 0.132433, "fair_value": 0.149214, "relative_strength": -15.580561, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.173077, "energy": 22.956644, "activity_lines": [ 0.124933, 0.125745, 0.127788, 0.12976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1275, "volume": 176496, "typical_volume": 128363.65, "trend": 0.132333, "fair_value": 0.14875, "relative_strength": -15.797695, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.548836, "energy": 22.116543, "activity_lines": [ 0.1254, 0.126009, 0.127588, 0.129442 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.129, "volume": 82799, "typical_volume": 127933.6, "trend": 0.131983, "fair_value": 0.148179, "relative_strength": -14.358452, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.922854, "energy": 13.718593, "activity_lines": [ 0.1266, 0.126482, 0.127564, 0.129227 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }