{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0244aa21-cf0d-4de5-85b6-43610075b325", "symbol": "BBSC", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - BetaBuilders US Small Cap Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.191, "architecture_energy": 66.013, "architecture_maturity": 95.272, "architecture_confidence": 55.104, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.27, "rotation_up": 49.25, "upward_expansion": 76.17, "deceleration": 74.32, "rotation_down": 29.69, "downward_expansion": 16.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.017666, 36.013545, 35.241571, 34.325989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.674999, "trend_reference": 33.238333, "distance_from_trend": 0.103395, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.099327, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.305191, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.079667, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.183637, "excess_performance": 0.012745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103395, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065155, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.305191, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066112, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002751, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.183637, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.545115, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1811, "relative_activity": 0.197386, "balance": 3.545115, "dry_up": 0.30736, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019695, "annualized_volatility": 0.120575, "from_high_reference": -0.001497, "from_low_reference": 0.338748 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.238333, "fair_value_reference": 28.099327, "structural_low": 29.625, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.003926, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.0105, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.136218, "worst_return": -0.071246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018561, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.00214, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.164155, "worst_return": -0.212375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.003238, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00662, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.060643, "worst_return": -0.118641, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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27.442308, "relative_strength": 1.307741, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.976169, "energy": 93.823165, "activity_lines": [ 34.728, 34.107818, 32.997119, 32.414677 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 35.860001, "volume": 755, "typical_volume": 13443.75, "trend": 31.864167, "fair_value": 27.526923, "relative_strength": -0.384975, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.472685, "energy": 94.062646, "activity_lines": [ 35.218333, 34.522364, 33.341238, 32.688258 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 36.525002, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 13350.6, "trend": 32.086, "fair_value": 27.613622, "relative_strength": 4.478197, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.897821, "energy": 95.939679, "activity_lines": [ 35.759001, 34.98191, 33.723119, 32.988957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 36.564999, "volume": 27, "typical_volume": 12759.55, "trend": 32.298667, "fair_value": 27.70093, "relative_strength": 1.464876, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.186219, "energy": 93.837163, "activity_lines": [ 36.147, 35.381818, 34.082429, 33.277925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.724998, "volume": 864, "typical_volume": 12692.25, "trend": 32.485, "fair_value": 27.782628, "relative_strength": -0.469164, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.397665, "energy": 87.756893, "activity_lines": [ 36.114, 35.562636, 34.335619, 33.498978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.005001, "volume": 840, "typical_volume": 12697.5, "trend": 32.6845, "fair_value": 27.86218, "relative_strength": 1.703407, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.866573, "energy": 82.204963, "activity_lines": [ 36.102, 35.742727, 34.596405, 33.726075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.845001, "volume": 8458, "typical_volume": 12488.35, "trend": 32.877833, "fair_value": 27.938846, "relative_strength": 1.350602, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.684574, "energy": 65.030781, "activity_lines": [ 36.005, 35.848637, 34.8205, 33.929979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.404999, "volume": 171, "typical_volume": 9789.1, "trend": 33.064, "fair_value": 28.013974, "relative_strength": -0.610292, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.350632, "energy": 54.463971, "activity_lines": [ 35.762333, 35.828091, 34.982191, 34.093022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.674999, "volume": 1811, "typical_volume": 9174.9, "trend": 33.238333, "fair_value": 28.099327, "relative_strength": -0.079667, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.190691, "energy": 66.012511, "activity_lines": [ 36.017666, 36.013545, 35.241571, 34.325989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }