{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0249b596-9daa-4f65-b1e2-a58e86f90520", "symbol": "ELR", "name": "Eastern Platinum Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.264, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.478, "architecture_energy": 13.525, "architecture_maturity": 46.652, "architecture_confidence": 66.905, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.15, "rotation_up": 29.79, "upward_expansion": 20.69, "deceleration": 42.24, "rotation_down": 23.74, "downward_expansion": 57.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.381333, 0.361273, 0.383143, 0.407613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.45, "trend_reference": 0.450333, "distance_from_trend": -0.00074, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.240641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.870005, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.511068, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.1, "excess_performance": -0.220421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00074, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011704, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.870005, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.476205, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035111, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.266592, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.828801, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 558900, "relative_activity": 0.671186, "balance": 0.828801, "dry_up": 0.520022, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167521, "annualized_volatility": 1.228436, "from_high_reference": -0.545455, "from_low_reference": 1.647059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.450333, "fair_value_reference": 0.240641, "structural_low": 0.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.047379, "positive_rate": 0.34375, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.032817, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 1.153846, "worst_return": -0.217391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.068443, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.846154, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.206878, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.178389, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.375, "worst_return": -0.466667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.564286, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.538595, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.571429, "worst_return": -0.636364, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.478261, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.06383, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.451613, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.1, "volume": 306800, "typical_volume": 298580.0, "trend": 0.113333, "fair_value": 0.263269, "relative_strength": -28.362302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.53665, "energy": 59.943387, "activity_lines": [ 0.325333, 0.344182, 0.388429, 0.42086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.37, "volume": 438700, "typical_volume": 910805.0, "trend": 0.457667, "fair_value": 0.236538, "relative_strength": -11.777275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.837345, "energy": 39.218812, "activity_lines": [ 0.338667, 0.345091, 0.384095, 0.414731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.35, "volume": 378900, "typical_volume": 862275.0, "trend": 0.452667, "fair_value": 0.238333, "relative_strength": -16.350231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.001168, "energy": 32.079583, "activity_lines": [ 0.344667, 0.343636, 0.378619, 0.407785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.45, "volume": 558900, "typical_volume": 832705.0, "trend": 0.450333, "fair_value": 0.240641, "relative_strength": 3.511068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.478112, "energy": 13.525435, "activity_lines": [ 0.381333, 0.361273, 0.383143, 0.407613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }