{ "ticker": { "uuid": "024d9ac9-4c9b-4774-9f82-2150422a7a19", "symbol": "V3NL", "name": "Vanguard ESG North America All Cap UCITS ETF USD Income", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.182, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.194, "architecture_energy": 72.352, "architecture_maturity": 88.908, "architecture_confidence": 73.04, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.27, "rotation_up": 59.15, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.64, "rotation_down": 29.83, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.574067, 7.556135, 7.428345, 7.238833 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.718, "trend_reference": 7.023726, "distance_from_trend": 0.098847, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.013868, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283367, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.237575, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.173553, "excess_performance": 0.002661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098847, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03944, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283367, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037817, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032376, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004175, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173553, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 67.985274, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 278352, "relative_activity": 12.538407, "balance": 67.985274, "dry_up": 3.192034, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014358, "annualized_volatility": 0.136646, "from_high_reference": -0.001165, "from_low_reference": 0.237662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.023726, "fair_value_reference": 6.013868, "structural_low": 6.318, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.015212, "positive_rate": 0.681818, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": -0.006223, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.095552, "worst_return": -0.063868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048659, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006092, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.157831, "worst_return": -0.10922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.049902, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01124, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099653, "worst_return": 0.031373, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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-3.319263, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.668845, "energy": 82.685929, "activity_lines": [ 7.5417, 7.489661, 7.245381, 7.081046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.629, "volume": 5073, "typical_volume": 9043.75, "trend": 6.948701, "fair_value": 5.95574, "relative_strength": -1.294294, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.778512, "energy": 73.951055, "activity_lines": [ 7.580533, 7.525871, 7.30345, 7.126897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.573, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": 9021.4, "trend": 6.976061, "fair_value": 5.975251, "relative_strength": -1.792367, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.429515, "energy": 86.423367, "activity_lines": [ 7.584867, 7.543679, 7.351222, 7.167174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.365, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 8514.65, "trend": 6.996222, "fair_value": 5.993428, "relative_strength": -5.006127, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.619839, "energy": 61.367016, "activity_lines": [ 7.5154, 7.517521, 7.374901, 7.192267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.718, "volume": 278352, "typical_volume": 22199.95, "trend": 7.023726, "fair_value": 6.013868, "relative_strength": -3.237575, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.194091, "energy": 72.351948, "activity_lines": [ 7.574067, 7.556135, 7.428345, 7.238833 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }