{ "ticker": { "uuid": "025ef22a-9c26-4092-a635-694615ea2a18", "symbol": "JHX", "name": "James Hardie Industries plc", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.464, "architecture_energy": 82.04, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.347, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.84, "rotation_up": 80.66, "upward_expansion": 91.89, "deceleration": 45.81, "rotation_down": 11.52, "downward_expansion": 16.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.049999, 37.692908, 34.86819, 33.541957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 43.18, "trend_reference": 32.748333, "distance_from_trend": 0.31854, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.391667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.004878, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 28.402706, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.330253, "excess_performance": 0.266547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.31854, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077496, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.004878, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.341035, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.284027, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.422675, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.330253, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.95235, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9501511, "relative_activity": 1.293019, "balance": 2.95235, "dry_up": 1.162782, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065326, "annualized_volatility": 0.470732, "from_high_reference": -0.060896, "from_low_reference": 0.768947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.748333, "fair_value_reference": 43.391667, "structural_low": 25.370001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.02376, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": 0.025589, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.231954, "worst_return": -0.135369, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.056259, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.038062, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.257851, "worst_return": -0.219441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.09089, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.031951, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.179621, "worst_return": -0.312821, "sufficient": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.049999, "volume": 5105100, "typical_volume": 7759497.7, "trend": 31.714, "fair_value": 43.495962, "relative_strength": 8.698733, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.457423, "energy": 80.237525, "activity_lines": [ 35.879999, 34.219636, 32.048333, 31.821484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.599998, "volume": 6480027, "typical_volume": 7671488.8, "trend": 31.963333, "fair_value": 43.4775, "relative_strength": 16.98056, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.007193, "energy": 82.082001, "activity_lines": [ 36.575332, 35.135272, 32.681285, 32.201226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.919998, "volume": 10334671, "typical_volume": 7758881.0, "trend": 32.175667, "fair_value": 43.436987, "relative_strength": 15.510884, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.594238, "energy": 66.576391, "activity_lines": [ 36.775998, 35.764908, 33.233381, 32.52101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.209999, "volume": 7861740, "typical_volume": 7489314.8, "trend": 32.389666, "fair_value": 43.412757, "relative_strength": 14.058324, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.19098, "energy": 55.674271, "activity_lines": [ 36.909332, 36.265817, 33.787761, 32.845806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.18, "volume": 9501511, "typical_volume": 7348313.55, "trend": 32.748333, "fair_value": 43.391667, "relative_strength": 28.402706, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.464491, "energy": 82.039973, "activity_lines": [ 39.049999, 37.692908, 34.86819, 33.541957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }