{ "ticker": { "uuid": "026a15dd-a00a-4be8-9d50-febfeb4a7cc8", "symbol": "ENGI", "name": "Engie SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.295, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.814, "architecture_energy": 16.546, "architecture_maturity": 37.89, "architecture_confidence": 71.3, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.92, "rotation_up": 34.33, "upward_expansion": 62.34, "deceleration": 83.83, "rotation_down": 25.97, "downward_expansion": 14.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.13, 27.188364, 27.133195, 26.901069 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.709999, "trend_reference": 26.318072, "distance_from_trend": 0.014892, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.021501, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.569192, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.436301, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.083223, "excess_performance": -0.091024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014892, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08538, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.569192, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133644, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054363, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13741, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083223, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.631989, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15, "relative_activity": 0.046956, "balance": 0.631989, "dry_up": 1.139458, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031881, "annualized_volatility": 0.288896, "from_high_reference": -0.052165, "from_low_reference": 0.621703 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.318072, "fair_value_reference": 17.021501, "structural_low": 24.362772, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.01889, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": 0.003213, "regime_survival": 0.710526, "best_return": 0.147502, "worst_return": -0.225882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.024968, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.035512, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.232423, "worst_return": -0.074289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.142547, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.081752, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.327204, "worst_return": 0.021918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 16.53528, "relative_strength": -0.096606, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.336468, "energy": 49.683715, "activity_lines": [ 27.340666, 27.175636, 27.013907, 26.464176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.950001, "volume": 2060, "typical_volume": 356.65, "trend": 25.578143, "fair_value": 16.630475, "relative_strength": -1.829424, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.107962, "energy": 34.716877, "activity_lines": [ 27.240667, 27.141454, 27.031864, 26.566457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.91, "volume": 776, "typical_volume": 352.95, "trend": 25.770631, "fair_value": 16.723362, "relative_strength": -0.171069, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.150472, "energy": 31.623576, "activity_lines": [ 27.128667, 27.114182, 27.036955, 26.652384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.73, "volume": 665, "typical_volume": 341.2, "trend": 25.993944, "fair_value": 16.823229, "relative_strength": 1.324855, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.94711, "energy": 37.974453, "activity_lines": [ 27.327334, 27.234, 27.123199, 26.778795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.360001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 318.7, "trend": 26.180805, "fair_value": 16.924407, "relative_strength": -0.120096, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.283753, "energy": 27.980572, "activity_lines": [ 27.341334, 27.272364, 27.160256, 26.866927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.709999, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 319.45, "trend": 26.318072, "fair_value": 17.021501, "relative_strength": -5.436301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.81404, "energy": 16.545597, "activity_lines": [ 27.13, 27.188364, 27.133195, 26.901069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }