{ "ticker": { "uuid": "026c113c-23f5-40d0-b5a1-0e2a2a6ee42c", "symbol": "XSX6", "name": "Xtrackers Stoxx Europe 600 UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.166, "architecture_energy": 67.005, "architecture_maturity": 29.507, "architecture_confidence": 86.713, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 62.06, "upward_expansion": 85.14, "deceleration": 52.35, "rotation_down": 22.38, "downward_expansion": 11.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 14477.133333, 14401.127273, 14209.642857, 14032.490323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14753.0, "trend_reference": 13850.066667, "distance_from_trend": 0.065193, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11529.414175, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.279597, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.766824, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079304, "excess_performance": 0.028068, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065193, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0335, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.279597, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051949, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017668, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009715, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079304, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.749464, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20775, "relative_activity": 1.611314, "balance": 1.749464, "dry_up": 1.342607, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018358, "annualized_volatility": 0.152685, "from_high_reference": -0.005192, "from_low_reference": 0.234148 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13850.066667, "fair_value_reference": 11529.414175, "structural_low": 12404.325195, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.008183, "positive_rate": 0.617647, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.000688, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.090037, "worst_return": -0.094544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.014293, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.000444, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.118475, "worst_return": -0.052757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07054, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 7.6e-05, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.134357, "worst_return": -0.115175, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.448199, "energy": 72.636819, "activity_lines": [ 14329.8, 14219.109091, 13979.17619, 13856.12043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14196.0, "volume": 22581, "typical_volume": 16094.1, "trend": 13726.733333, "fair_value": 11434.340457, "relative_strength": 0.785962, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.491665, "energy": 59.590192, "activity_lines": [ 14290.533333, 14236.690909, 14017.919048, 13888.705376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14324.0, "volume": 12705, "typical_volume": 13417.95, "trend": 13767.533333, "fair_value": 11464.106483, "relative_strength": 0.410294, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.40131, "energy": 50.524898, "activity_lines": [ 14294.466667, 14267.945455, 14068.957143, 13927.23871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14454.0, "volume": 13181, "typical_volume": 12687.45, "trend": 13808.066667, "fair_value": 11495.757124, "relative_strength": 0.048355, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.754331, "energy": 47.84844, "activity_lines": [ 14341.866667, 14311.327273, 14128.119048, 13971.526882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14753.0, "volume": 20775, "typical_volume": 12893.2, "trend": 13850.066667, "fair_value": 11529.414175, "relative_strength": 1.766824, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.16566, "energy": 67.005444, "activity_lines": [ 14477.133333, 14401.127273, 14209.642857, 14032.490323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }