{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0272c413-6d16-4f04-9b0f-8d54aadc5838", "symbol": "9088", "name": "ChinaAMC Global ETF Series - ChinaAMC Hang Seng Tech Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.893, "architecture_energy": 17.464, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.47, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.07, "rotation_up": 37.09, "upward_expansion": 22.72, "deceleration": 41.23, "rotation_down": 20.02, "downward_expansion": 54.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.773667, 0.759927, 0.768271, 0.778699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.788, "trend_reference": 0.803833, "distance_from_trend": -0.019697, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.747872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053656, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.655393, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.093211, "excess_performance": -0.059629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019697, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063094, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053656, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066235, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086554, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013062, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093211, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.091098, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.091098, "dry_up": 1.730129, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042561, "annualized_volatility": 0.249201, "from_high_reference": -0.280257, "from_low_reference": 0.143687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.803833, "fair_value_reference": 0.747872, "structural_low": 0.689, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.009554, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001786, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.208416, "worst_return": -0.162084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.016353, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006845, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.16699, "worst_return": -0.161237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.046664, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.027034, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.013093, "worst_return": -0.074696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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0.747237, "relative_strength": -10.125639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.522252, "energy": 19.84494, "activity_lines": [ 0.7634, 0.754345, 0.767033, 0.780019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.788, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 288360.0, "trend": 0.803833, "fair_value": 0.747872, "relative_strength": -8.655393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.893088, "energy": 17.464276, "activity_lines": [ 0.773667, 0.759927, 0.768271, 0.778699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }