{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0277d984-83ef-40da-992a-bd19d20f78c8", "symbol": "7561", "name": "Bioray Biotech Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.465, "architecture_energy": 55.08, "architecture_maturity": 44.329, "architecture_confidence": 88.054, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.13, "rotation_up": 18.46, "upward_expansion": 8.85, "deceleration": 44.63, "rotation_down": 60.73, "downward_expansion": 82.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.9, 18.375455, 18.890476, 19.74043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.65, "trend_reference": 20.92, "distance_from_trend": -0.204111, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.340364, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.315951, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.678448, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.301887, "excess_performance": -0.743259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.204111, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044458, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.315951, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060009, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.476784, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022333, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.301887, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.227564, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29842, "relative_activity": 0.331043, "balance": 1.227564, "dry_up": 0.778535, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101178, "annualized_volatility": 0.30798, "from_high_reference": -0.481308, "from_low_reference": 0.018349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.92, "fair_value_reference": 24.340364, "structural_low": 16.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.000829, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029374, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.325758, "worst_return": -0.211155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.00858, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024129, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.224066, "worst_return": -0.158813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.072991, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.207524, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.125628, "worst_return": -0.174658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.062394, "energy": 58.759521, "activity_lines": [ 18.883333, 19.310909, 20.570952, 21.138602 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 18.65, "volume": 236606, "typical_volume": 74072.35, "trend": 21.398333, "fair_value": 24.970156, "relative_strength": -46.195688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.657553, "energy": 48.596598, "activity_lines": [ 18.78, 19.077273, 20.291667, 20.95086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.85, "volume": 131014, "typical_volume": 79073.0, "trend": 21.321667, "fair_value": 24.885248, "relative_strength": -47.394211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.344207, "energy": 44.859101, "activity_lines": [ 18.786667, 18.944545, 20.055238, 20.786452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.1, "volume": 71531, "typical_volume": 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19.526667, 19.207273, 19.675952, 20.451398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.65, "volume": 31850, "typical_volume": 83401.5, "trend": 21.155, "fair_value": 24.531678, "relative_strength": -40.046902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.328518, "energy": 23.538248, "activity_lines": [ 19.34, 19.128182, 19.503571, 20.286452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.1, "volume": 184783, "typical_volume": 89605.7, "trend": 21.058333, "fair_value": 24.437463, "relative_strength": -45.436952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.30301, "energy": 35.81129, "activity_lines": [ 18.636667, 18.779091, 19.206667, 20.024839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.65, "volume": 29842, "typical_volume": 90145.3, "trend": 20.92, "fair_value": 24.340364, "relative_strength": -47.678448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.464871, "energy": 55.080122, "activity_lines": [ 17.9, 18.375455, 18.890476, 19.74043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }