{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02883a36-3ebc-4f6e-a896-92695cd9db68", "symbol": "PDN", "name": "INVESCO RAFI DEVELOPED MARKETS EX-U.S. SMALL-MID ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.305, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.343, "architecture_energy": 39.589, "architecture_maturity": 17.612, "architecture_confidence": 70.57, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.19, "rotation_up": 50.57, "upward_expansion": 69.58, "deceleration": 49.27, "rotation_down": 19.05, "downward_expansion": 17.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.897, 45.583613, 45.610976, 45.415412 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 47.265, "trend_reference": 45.223273, "distance_from_trend": 0.045148, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.288641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.339383, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.547144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.041985, "excess_performance": -0.083639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045148, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031706, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.339383, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025471, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042025, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041985, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.643461, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52064, "relative_activity": 0.528603, "balance": 0.643461, "dry_up": 0.513049, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026527, "annualized_volatility": 0.187933, "from_high_reference": -0.002979, "from_low_reference": 0.216574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.223273, "fair_value_reference": 35.288641, "structural_low": 41.784129, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008686, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.026392, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.065561, "worst_return": -0.074416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.048118, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035116, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.157386, "worst_return": -0.048943, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048282, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.223568, "worst_return": -0.077865, 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45.224785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.895, "volume": 59804, "typical_volume": 126186.5, "trend": 44.879488, "fair_value": 34.962036, "relative_strength": -3.757272, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.334225, "energy": 9.663299, "activity_lines": [ 45.123029, 45.298482, 45.368653, 45.232892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.06, "volume": 51317, "typical_volume": 107898.95, "trend": 44.97875, "fair_value": 35.062267, "relative_strength": -2.818571, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.949792, "energy": 8.312019, "activity_lines": [ 45.082747, 45.224054, 45.373677, 45.244538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.45, "volume": 38943, "typical_volume": 100255.25, "trend": 45.0877, "fair_value": 35.169363, "relative_strength": -3.024973, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.834128, "energy": 7.275771, "activity_lines": [ 45.213307, 45.233296, 45.412025, 45.274941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.265, "volume": 52064, "typical_volume": 98493.5, "trend": 45.223273, "fair_value": 35.288641, "relative_strength": -2.547144, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.34331, "energy": 39.58914, "activity_lines": [ 45.897, 45.583613, 45.610976, 45.415412 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }