{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0289e7fd-2dda-4109-96d4-ff18006577e2", "symbol": "ALBRK", "name": "Albaraka T\u00fcrk Katilim Bankasi A.S.", "exchange": "IST", "country": "TR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "XU100.IS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.662, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.243, "architecture_energy": 79.468, "architecture_maturity": 11.088, "architecture_confidence": 63.85, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.34, "rotation_up": 78.36, "upward_expansion": 89.87, "deceleration": 44.81, "rotation_down": 8.14, "downward_expansion": 16.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.898667, 8.630909, 8.446476, 8.42226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.15, "trend_reference": 8.405324, "distance_from_trend": 0.088596, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.464091, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.415512, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.20788, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.153277, "excess_performance": 0.048304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088596, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005605, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.415512, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025015, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012079, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077366, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.153277, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.031252, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74553450, "relative_activity": 1.439578, "balance": 1.031252, "dry_up": 1.401922, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041194, "annualized_volatility": 0.303839, "from_high_reference": -0.106047, "from_low_reference": 0.269848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.405324, "fair_value_reference": 6.464091, "structural_low": 7.47, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.077165, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.005174, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.534591, "worst_return": -0.208114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.113018, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.049519, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.503144, "worst_return": -0.156187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.125185, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.044153, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.460445, "worst_return": -0.025117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 61807701.3, "trend": 8.393331, "fair_value": 6.332876, "relative_strength": -10.348417, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.229905, "energy": 17.227591, "activity_lines": [ 8.177333, 8.162727, 8.238347, 8.29297 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 8.69, "volume": 54819853, "typical_volume": 59384959.95, "trend": 8.409793, "fair_value": 6.364239, "relative_strength": -7.540526, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.662797, "energy": 12.382469, "activity_lines": [ 8.364, 8.245818, 8.272054, 8.31211 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 9.11, "volume": 77650132, "typical_volume": 57638129.0, "trend": 8.41436, "fair_value": 6.398053, "relative_strength": -3.561972, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.895862, "energy": 44.722756, "activity_lines": [ 8.648, 8.405455, 8.342762, 8.357285 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 8.69, "volume": 83389868, "typical_volume": 52360111.1, "trend": 8.418522, "fair_value": 6.429416, "relative_strength": -3.463808, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.619292, "energy": 48.337338, "activity_lines": [ 8.722, 8.479455, 8.371476, 8.375068 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 9.15, "volume": 74553450, "typical_volume": 51788408.8, "trend": 8.405324, "fair_value": 6.464091, "relative_strength": -1.20788, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.242964, "energy": 79.467793, "activity_lines": [ 8.898667, 8.630909, 8.446476, 8.42226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }