{ "ticker": { "uuid": "028a951e-2517-462b-8339-116e4449a422", "symbol": "MTH", "name": "Mithril Silver and Gold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.043, "architecture_energy": 50.571, "architecture_maturity": 82.292, "architecture_confidence": 90.32, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.66, "rotation_up": 22.55, "upward_expansion": 7.36, "deceleration": 55.73, "rotation_down": 58.9, "downward_expansion": 83.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.230667, 0.238636, 0.267429, 0.289602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.23, "trend_reference": 0.331, "distance_from_trend": -0.305136, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.332647, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.308577, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.901262, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.397039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.305136, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193666, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.308577, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272428, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.479013, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149897, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.659292, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1447321, "relative_activity": 1.18995, "balance": 1.659292, "dry_up": 0.726268, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.189799, "annualized_volatility": 0.647923, "from_high_reference": -0.684932, "from_low_reference": 0.210526 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.331, "fair_value_reference": 0.332647, "structural_low": 0.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.040064, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.065191, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 4.041667, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.217105, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.206737, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.611111, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.090286, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.388889, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.369444, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.403481, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.475, "worst_return": -0.6875, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011765, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013158, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.194805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.270588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061856, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019417, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178218, 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"relative_strength": -45.65984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.470832, "energy": 76.60005, "activity_lines": [ 0.248333, 0.268455, 0.295286, 0.322398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.245, "volume": 320124, "typical_volume": 1316540.8, "trend": 0.365333, "fair_value": 0.331494, "relative_strength": -43.80204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.497225, "energy": 70.346617, "activity_lines": [ 0.244667, 0.261182, 0.288786, 0.314183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.22, "volume": 846966, "typical_volume": 1264176.7, "trend": 0.354, "fair_value": 0.331942, "relative_strength": -48.724334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.650045, "energy": 64.882931, "activity_lines": [ 0.235667, 0.250636, 0.280476, 0.304806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.23, "volume": 918988, "typical_volume": 1235978.3, "trend": 0.341667, "fair_value": 0.332455, "relative_strength": -46.93297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.018226, "energy": 52.587618, "activity_lines": [ 0.233333, 0.243909, 0.27369, 0.296806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.23, "volume": 1447321, "typical_volume": 1216286.95, "trend": 0.331, "fair_value": 0.332647, "relative_strength": -47.901262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.042779, "energy": 50.571156, "activity_lines": [ 0.230667, 0.238636, 0.267429, 0.289602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }