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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.218, "architecture_energy": 89.684, "architecture_maturity": 73.276, "architecture_confidence": 81.411, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.18, "rotation_up": 8.18, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 82.05, "downward_expansion": 97.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 1434.334001, 1483.78924, 1512.984212, 1562.612891 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1430.0, "trend_reference": 1664.623424, "distance_from_trend": -0.140947, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2394.64472, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.402834, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.987142, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.281895, "excess_performance": -0.227228, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140947, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112892, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.402834, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020203, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.279871, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070867, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.281895, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.905797, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.905797, "dry_up": 0.232178, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027089, "annualized_volatility": 0.312424, "from_high_reference": -0.461055, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1664.623424, "fair_value_reference": 2394.64472, "structural_low": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.592191, "energy": 58.006672, "activity_lines": [ 1521.206194, 1540.79298, 1550.017053, 1615.161887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1430.0, "volume": 38, "typical_volume": 350.9, "trend": 1701.370889, "fair_value": 2403.669591, "relative_strength": -28.974781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.798723, "energy": 88.078661, "activity_lines": [ 1481.764269, 1521.227673, 1535.927692, 1596.703536 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1430.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 129.35, "trend": 1687.034109, "fair_value": 2399.157155, "relative_strength": -28.780117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.257371, "energy": 91.091023, "activity_lines": [ 1451.369121, 1501.662366, 1523.80015, 1579.195737 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1430.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 76.45, "trend": 1664.623424, "fair_value": 2394.64472, "relative_strength": -27.987142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.218108, "energy": 89.683667, "activity_lines": [ 1434.334001, 1483.78924, 1512.984212, 1562.612891 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }